Nashville Predators at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators
Islanders- Kyle PalmieriGoals1
- Mike ReillyAssists1
- Kyle PalmieriPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:41Kyle Palmieri Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexander Romanov (14)0–2
- P29:07Noah Dobson Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Mike Reilly (15), Mathew Barzal (56)0–1
Turning points
The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P29:07Noah Dobson Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Mike Reilly (15), Mathew Barzal (56)NSH 0 – 1 NYI · NYI 53% → 72% +19NYI 53% → 72%+19 pts
- P318:41Kyle Palmieri Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexander Romanov (14)NSH 0 – 2 NYI · NYI >99% → >99% +1NYI >99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Islanders 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 48%
- Fair odds
- NYI -116
- NSH +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 3.0 – 3.2 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −8 | +4 | NSH: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.20 more goals than with its usual starter (≈13 weighted starts) · NYI: Semyon Varlamov: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NSH +14 Elo | NSH 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 53.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 3.021st of 31 |
| 10th of 312.9 | Goals allowed | 3.424th of 31 |
| 13th of 31+0.3 | Margin | −0.425th of 31 |
| 15th of 3150.6% | Shot share | 47.7%23rd of 31 |
| 7th of 3191.1% | Save percentage | 90.7%11th of 31 |
| 2nd of 317–3 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 31 |
| 1st of 3122–13 | Road vs home | 16–1924th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NSH 1–0 NYI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.