St. Louis Blues at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Brandon SaadGoals1
- Justin FaulkAssists2
- Justin FaulkPoints2
Predators- Filip ForsbergGoals2
- Gustav NyquistAssists3
- Filip ForsbergPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:23Mark Jankowski Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–6
- P318:16Filip Forsberg Goal (43) Wrist Shot, assists: Gustav Nyquist (49), Ryan McDonagh (26)3–5
- P317:45Jordan Kyrou Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: Justin Faulk (28), Pavel Buchnevich (33)3–4
- P36:21Jake Neighbours Goal (27) Snap Shot, assists: Justin Faulk (27), Torey Krug (34)2–4
- P34:09Michael McCarron Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Kiefer Sherwood (15)1–4
- P219:29Anthony Beauvillier Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Gustav Nyquist (48), Luke Evangelista (19)1–3
- P21:13Filip Forsberg Goal (42) Snap Shot, assists: Gustav Nyquist (47), Ryan O'Reilly (38)1–2
- P17:27Brandon Saad Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (52)1–1
- P10:31Roman Josi Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (37), Filip Forsberg (44)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:31Roman Josi Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (37), Filip Forsberg (44)STL 0 – 1 NSH · NSH 56% → 70% +14NSH 56% → 70%+14 pts
- P17:27Brandon Saad Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (52)STL 1 – 1 NSH · STL 30% → 44% +15STL 30% → 44%+15 pts
- P21:13Filip Forsberg Goal (42) Snap Shot, assists: Gustav Nyquist (47), Ryan O'Reilly (38)STL 1 – 2 NSH · NSH 55% → 72% +17NSH 55% → 72%+17 pts
- P219:29Anthony Beauvillier Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Gustav Nyquist (48), Luke Evangelista (19)STL 1 – 3 NSH · NSH 76% → 91% +15NSH 76% → 91%+15 pts
- P34:09Michael McCarron Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Kiefer Sherwood (15)STL 1 – 4 NSH · NSH 93% → 99% +5NSH 93% → 99%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Predators 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NSH 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NSH 59%
- Fair odds
- NSH -127
- STL +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 2.9 – 3.2 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | +6 | STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NSH +65 Elo | NSH 59.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 55.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 312.9 | Goals scored | 3.214th of 31 |
| 13th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 2.99th of 31 |
| 18th of 31−0.1 | Margin | +0.314th of 31 |
| 25th of 3146.7% | Shot share | 50.8%14th of 31 |
| 3rd of 3191.6% | Save percentage | 91.0%8th of 31 |
| 3rd of 317–3 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 31 |
| 17th of 3116–19 | Road vs home | 20–1614th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
STL 0–2 NSH in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.