Edmonton Oilers at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Mattias EkholmGoals1
- Mattias EkholmAssists1
- Mattias EkholmPoints2
Blues- Brayden SchennGoals2
- Kevin HayesAssists2
- Brayden SchennPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT2:09Brandon Saad Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–3
- P314:35Leon Draisaitl Goal (39) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (97), Mattias Ekholm (32)2–2
- P31:44Brayden Schenn Goal (17) Slap Shot, assists: Kasperi Kapanen (16), Kevin Hayes (16)1–2
- P28:15Brayden Schenn Goal (16) Slap Shot, assists: Justin Faulk (26), Kevin Hayes (15)1–1
- P17:05Mattias Ekholm Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Connor Brown (7), Sam Carrick (6)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:05Mattias Ekholm Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Connor Brown (7), Sam Carrick (6)EDM 1 – 0 STL · EDM 46% → 62% +15EDM 46% → 62%+15 pts
- P28:15Brayden Schenn Goal (16) Slap Shot, assists: Justin Faulk (26), Kevin Hayes (15)EDM 1 – 1 STL · STL 33% → 53% +19STL 33% → 53%+19 pts
- P31:44Brayden Schenn Goal (17) Slap Shot, assists: Kasperi Kapanen (16), Kevin Hayes (16)EDM 1 – 2 STL · STL 52% → 76% +24STL 52% → 76%+24 pts
- P314:35Leon Draisaitl Goal (39) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (97), Mattias Ekholm (32)EDM 2 – 2 STL · EDM 11% → 49% +38EDM 11% → 49%+38 pts
- OT2:09Brandon Saad Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: noneEDM 2 – 3 STL · STL 51% → 95% +45STL 51% → 95%+45 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blues 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 49%
- Fair odds
- STL -116
- EDM +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 3.0 – 3.2 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1550 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +3 | EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) · STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +10 Elo | EDM 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 53.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 313.6 | Goals scored | 2.924th of 31 |
| 8th of 312.9 | Goals allowed | 3.013th of 31 |
| 2nd of 31+0.7 | Margin | −0.119th of 31 |
| 4th of 3154.4% | Shot share | 46.7%25th of 31 |
| 12th of 3190.6% | Save percentage | 91.5%2nd of 31 |
| 5th of 317–3 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 31 |
| 9th of 3119–16 | Road vs home | 21–148th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
EDM 1–1 STL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.