Anaheim Ducks at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Alex KillornGoals1
- Frank VatranoAssists1
- Alex KillornPoints1
Oilers- Connor McDavidGoals2
- Mattias EkholmAssists2
- Connor McDavidPoints3
Scoring summary
- P315:42Alex Killorn Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Cam Fowler (29), Frank Vatrano (22)1–6
- P37:06Zach Hyman Goal (52) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (96), Evan Bouchard (60)0–6
- P215:57Warren Foegele Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Mattias Ekholm (31), Vincent Desharnais (10)0–5
- P29:28Connor McDavid Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (60), Evan Bouchard (59)0–4
- P116:16Mattias Ekholm Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Sam Carrick (5), Vincent Desharnais (9)0–3
- P114:15Connor McDavid Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Hyman (20)0–2
- P13:47Adam Henrique Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (59), Mattias Ekholm (30)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:47Adam Henrique Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (59), Mattias Ekholm (30)ANA 0 – 1 EDM · EDM 58% → 72% +14EDM 58% → 72%+14 pts
- P114:15Connor McDavid Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Hyman (20)ANA 0 – 2 EDM · EDM 73% → 85% +12EDM 73% → 85%+12 pts
- P116:16Mattias Ekholm Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Sam Carrick (5), Vincent Desharnais (9)ANA 0 – 3 EDM · EDM 85% → 93% +8EDM 85% → 93%+8 pts
- P29:28Connor McDavid Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (60), Evan Bouchard (59)ANA 0 – 4 EDM · EDM 95% → 99% +3EDM 95% → 99%+3 pts
- P215:57Warren Foegele Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Mattias Ekholm (31), Vincent Desharnais (10)ANA 0 – 5 EDM · EDM >99% → >99% +1EDM >99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Oilers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 72%
- Fair odds
- EDM -143
- ANA +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 2.8 – 3.3 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1415 | 1547 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | −1 | ANA: John Gibson: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) · EDM: Calvin Pickard: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈13 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +168 Elo | EDM 72.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 58.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 312.5 | Goals scored | 3.64th of 31 |
| 29th of 313.7 | Goals allowed | 2.99th of 31 |
| 29th of 31−1.2 | Margin | +0.74th of 31 |
| 30th of 3145.0% | Shot share | 54.3%4th of 31 |
| 28th of 3189.4% | Save percentage | 90.6%13th of 31 |
| 30th of 311–9 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 31 |
| 26th of 3113–22 | Road vs home | 23–113rd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ANA 0–3 EDM in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.