Tampa Bay Lightning at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Luke GlendeningGoals1
- Tanner JeannotAssists1
- Luke GlendeningPoints1
Ducks- Ross JohnstonGoals1
- Ben MeyersAssists1
- Ross JohnstonPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT0:59Anthony Cirelli Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (41)3–2
- P32:36Pavel Mintyukov Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Max Jones (10), Brett Leason (10)2–2
- P217:00Luke Glendening Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Austin Watson (2), Tanner Jeannot (7)2–1
- P27:50Anthony Duclair Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Perbix (20)1–1
- P113:49Ross Johnston Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Jakob Silfverberg (11), Ben Meyers (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:49Ross Johnston Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Jakob Silfverberg (11), Ben Meyers (2)TB 0 – 1 ANA · ANA 56% → 71% +15ANA 56% → 71%+15 pts
- P27:50Anthony Duclair Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Perbix (20)TB 1 – 1 ANA · TB 27% → 45% +18TB 27% → 45%+18 pts
- P217:00Luke Glendening Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Austin Watson (2), Tanner Jeannot (7)TB 2 – 1 ANA · TB 46% → 69% +23TB 46% → 69%+23 pts
- P32:36Pavel Mintyukov Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Max Jones (10), Brett Leason (10)TB 2 – 2 ANA · ANA 28% → 54% +26ANA 28% → 54%+26 pts
- OT0:59Anthony Cirelli Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (41)TB 3 – 2 ANA · TB 48% → 91% +43TB 48% → 91%+43 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Ducks 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ANA 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ANA 46%
- Fair odds
- ANA -130
- TB +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 2.9 – 3.3 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1424 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | TB on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −5 | +1 | TB: Jonas Johansson: team allows 0.13 more goals than with its usual starter (≈18 weighted starts) · ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈21 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +29 Elo | TB 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ANA 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ANA 56.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 313.5 | Goals scored | 2.529th of 31 |
| 23rd of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 3.729th of 31 |
| 14th of 31+0.2 | Margin | −1.129th of 31 |
| 20th of 3149.0% | Shot share | 45.1%30th of 31 |
| 29th of 3189.4% | Save percentage | 89.5%27th of 31 |
| 8th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 31 |
| 14th of 3117–18 | Road vs home | 10–2431st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TB 1–0 ANA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.