Tampa Bay Lightning at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Brayden PointGoals2
- Nikita KucherovAssists4
- Nikita KucherovPoints4
Sharks- William EklundGoals1
- Jacob MacDonaldAssists1
- William EklundPoints1
Scoring summary
- P314:02Brayden Point Goal (40) Slap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (81), Anthony Duclair (14)4–1
- P36:50Anthony Duclair Goal (20) Backhand, assists: Nikita Kucherov (80), Brayden Point (38)3–1
- P30:34Brayden Point Goal (39) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (79), Steven Stamkos (36)2–1
- P17:21William Eklund Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Jacob MacDonald (2)1–1
- P14:53Nicholas Paul Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Victor Hedman (56), Nikita Kucherov (78)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:53Nicholas Paul Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Victor Hedman (56), Nikita Kucherov (78)TB 1 – 0 SJ · TB 49% → 64% +15TB 49% → 64%+15 pts
- P17:21William Eklund Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Jacob MacDonald (2)TB 1 – 1 SJ · SJ 36% → 51% +15SJ 36% → 51%+15 pts
- P30:34Brayden Point Goal (39) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (79), Steven Stamkos (36)TB 2 – 1 SJ · TB 49% → 73% +24TB 49% → 73%+24 pts
- P36:50Anthony Duclair Goal (20) Backhand, assists: Nikita Kucherov (80), Brayden Point (38)TB 3 – 1 SJ · TB 78% → 94% +16TB 78% → 94%+16 pts
- P314:02Brayden Point Goal (40) Slap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (81), Anthony Duclair (14)TB 4 – 1 SJ · TB 99% → >99% +1TB 99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Sharks 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SJ 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SJ 37%
- Fair odds
- SJ -105
- TB +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.1 – 3.1 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1392 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +1 | TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) · SJ: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +94 Elo | TB 63.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SJ 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SJ 51.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 313.5 | Goals scored | 2.230th of 31 |
| 23rd of 313.4 | Goals allowed | 4.131st of 31 |
| 15th of 31+0.2 | Margin | −1.831st of 31 |
| 21st of 3148.9% | Shot share | 42.0%31st of 31 |
| 29th of 3189.4% | Save percentage | 89.2%30th of 31 |
| 4th of 317–3 | Last 10 | 1–931st of 31 |
| 14th of 3116–17 | Road vs home | 10–2130th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TB 1–0 SJ in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.