Tampa Bay Lightning at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Steven StamkosGoals2
- Brayden PointAssists1
- Steven StamkosPoints2
Kings- Adrian KempeGoals1
- Anze KopitarAssists2
- Adrian KempePoints2
Scoring summary
- OT0:25Vladislav Gavrikov Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (40), Anze Kopitar (39)3–4
- P319:14Steven Stamkos Goal (29) Slap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (82), Victor Hedman (57)3–3
- P315:25Steven Stamkos Goal (28) Slap Shot, assists: Brayden Point (39), Anthony Duclair (15)2–3
- P31:12Mikey Anderson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–3
- P22:18Trevor Moore Goal (26) Backhand, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (19)1–2
- P119:54Brayden Point Goal (41) , assists: none1–1
- P17:03Adrian Kempe Goal (22) Tip-In, assists: Anze Kopitar (38), Quinton Byfield (32)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:54Brayden Point Goal (41) , assists: noneTB 1 – 1 LA · TB 29% → 46% +17TB 29% → 46%+17 pts
- P22:18Trevor Moore Goal (26) Backhand, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (19)TB 1 – 2 LA · LA 54% → 71% +17LA 54% → 71%+17 pts
- P31:12Mikey Anderson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: noneTB 1 – 3 LA · LA 76% → 91% +15LA 76% → 91%+15 pts
- P319:14Steven Stamkos Goal (29) Slap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (82), Victor Hedman (57)TB 3 – 3 LA · TB <1% → 49% +49TB <1% → 49%+49 pts
- OT0:25Vladislav Gavrikov Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (40), Anze Kopitar (39)TB 3 – 4 LA · LA 51% → 91% +40LA 51% → 91%+40 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kings 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 53%
- Fair odds
- LA -121
- TB +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.0 – 3.2 LA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +3 | TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · LA: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +22 Elo | LA 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 54.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 313.5 | Goals scored | 3.018th of 31 |
| 23rd of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 2.63rd of 31 |
| 14th of 31+0.2 | Margin | +0.411th of 31 |
| 20th of 3148.9% | Shot share | 53.5%5th of 31 |
| 27th of 3189.5% | Save percentage | 91.5%5th of 31 |
| 4th of 317–3 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 31 |
| 14th of 3117–17 | Road vs home | 15–1824th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TB 1–0 LA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.