Chicago Blackhawks at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks
Ducks- Alex KillornGoals2
- Brett LeasonAssists1
- Alex KillornPoints2
Scoring summary
- P310:31Frank Vatrano Goal (30) Snap Shot, assists: Cam Fowler (28), Troy Terry (30)0–4
- P218:26Alex Killorn Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Brett Leason (9), Olen Zellweger (3)0–3
- P29:34Brett Leason Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Ben Meyers (1), Pavel Mintyukov (24)0–2
- P23:10Alex Killorn Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: Gustav Lindstrom (5), Urho Vaakanainen (12)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P23:10Alex Killorn Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: Gustav Lindstrom (5), Urho Vaakanainen (12)CHI 0 – 1 ANA · ANA 55% → 72% +17ANA 55% → 72%+17 pts
- P29:34Brett Leason Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Ben Meyers (1), Pavel Mintyukov (24)CHI 0 – 2 ANA · ANA 73% → 87% +14ANA 73% → 87%+14 pts
- P218:26Alex Killorn Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Brett Leason (9), Olen Zellweger (3)CHI 0 – 3 ANA · ANA 90% → 97% +7ANA 90% → 97%+7 pts
- P310:31Frank Vatrano Goal (30) Snap Shot, assists: Cam Fowler (28), Troy Terry (30)CHI 0 – 4 ANA · ANA >99% → >99% +0ANA >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Ducks 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ANA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ANA 60%
- Fair odds
- ANA -128
- CHI +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.9 – 3.3 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1400 | 1420 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −22 | −6 | CHI: Arvid Soderblom: team allows 0.55 more goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) · ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ANA +72 Elo | ANA 60.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ANA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ANA 56.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 312.1 | Goals scored | 2.529th of 31 |
| 26th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 3.730th of 31 |
| 30th of 31−1.4 | Margin | −1.229th of 31 |
| 29th of 3145.3% | Shot share | 45.1%30th of 31 |
| 25th of 3189.6% | Save percentage | 89.3%29th of 31 |
| 28th of 312–8 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 31 |
| 31st of 314–27 | Road vs home | 9–2431st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHI 2–0 ANA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.