Edmonton Oilers at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Ryan Nugent-HopkinsGoals1
- Connor McDavidAssists2
- Ryan Nugent-HopkinsPoints2
Jets- Brenden DillonGoals1
- Neal PionkAssists2
- Neal PionkPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT1:22Zach Hyman Goal (51) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (44)4–3
- P310:39Sean Monahan Goal (22) Tip-In, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (31), Neal Pionk (22)3–3
- P39:39Brenden Dillon Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (42), Neal Pionk (21)3–2
- P36:10Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (93)3–1
- P213:29Connor Brown Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Mattias Ekholm (28), Cody Ceci (18)2–1
- P211:46Leon Draisaitl Goal (38) Wrist Shot, assists: Warren Foegele (20), Connor McDavid (92)1–1
- P24:43Mason Appleton Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (19), Adam Lowry (23)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P24:43Mason Appleton Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (19), Adam Lowry (23)EDM 0 – 1 WPG · WPG 54% → 71% +18WPG 54% → 71%+18 pts
- P211:46Leon Draisaitl Goal (38) Wrist Shot, assists: Warren Foegele (20), Connor McDavid (92)EDM 1 – 1 WPG · EDM 27% → 47% +20EDM 27% → 47%+20 pts
- P213:29Connor Brown Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Mattias Ekholm (28), Cody Ceci (18)EDM 2 – 1 WPG · EDM 47% → 68% +21EDM 47% → 68%+21 pts
- P310:39Sean Monahan Goal (22) Tip-In, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (31), Neal Pionk (22)EDM 3 – 3 WPG · WPG 19% → 52% +33WPG 19% → 52%+33 pts
- OT1:22Zach Hyman Goal (51) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (44)EDM 4 – 3 WPG · EDM 49% → 93% +44EDM 49% → 93%+44 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Jets 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 54%
- Fair odds
- WPG -121
- EDM +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 3.0 – 3.2 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | −4 | EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) · WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.11 more goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +26 Elo | WPG 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 54.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 313.6 | Goals scored | 3.021st of 31 |
| 9th of 312.9 | Goals allowed | 2.41st of 31 |
| 5th of 31+0.6 | Margin | +0.59th of 31 |
| 4th of 3154.3% | Shot share | 50.5%15th of 31 |
| 14th of 3190.5% | Save percentage | 92.3%1st of 31 |
| 14th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 31 |
| 12th of 3118–16 | Road vs home | 21–116th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
EDM 1–1 WPG in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.