Winnipeg Jets at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets
Capitals- Alex OvechkinGoals2
- T.J. OshieAssists2
- Alex OvechkinPoints2
Scoring summary
- P312:00Alex Ovechkin Goal (26) Backhand, assists: Dylan Strome (35), T.J. Oshie (10)0–3
- P33:36Alex Ovechkin Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McMichael (15)0–2
- P31:21John Carlson Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Max Pacioretty (15), T.J. Oshie (9)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P31:21John Carlson Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Max Pacioretty (15), T.J. Oshie (9)WPG 0 – 1 WSH · WSH 55% → 78% +23WSH 55% → 78%+23 pts
- P33:36Alex Ovechkin Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McMichael (15)WPG 0 – 2 WSH · WSH 79% → 93% +14WSH 79% → 93%+14 pts
- P312:00Alex Ovechkin Goal (26) Backhand, assists: Dylan Strome (35), T.J. Oshie (10)WPG 0 – 3 WSH · WSH 98% → >99% +2WSH 98% → >99%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Capitals 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 54%
- Fair odds
- WSH -140
- WPG +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 2.9 – 3.3 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | WPG on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −4 | +3 | WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.11 more goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) · WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +31 Elo | WSH 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 58.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 313.0 | Goals scored | 2.826th of 31 |
| 1st of 312.4 | Goals allowed | 3.118th of 31 |
| 8th of 31+0.6 | Margin | −0.324th of 31 |
| 15th of 3150.4% | Shot share | 46.9%25th of 31 |
| 1st of 3192.4% | Save percentage | 90.2%16th of 31 |
| 14th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 31 |
| 8th of 3119–15 | Road vs home | 18–1515th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WPG 1–0 WSH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.