Anaheim Ducks at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks
Kraken- Eeli TolvanenGoals1
- Eeli TolvanenAssists2
- Eeli TolvanenPoints3
Scoring summary
- P215:55Matty Beniers Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Eeli Tolvanen (23)0–4
- P25:08Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Eeli Tolvanen (22), Matty Beniers (20)0–3
- P116:51Jordan Eberle Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Jared McCann (28), Justin Schultz (15)0–2
- P17:50Eeli Tolvanen Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Matty Beniers (19), Jamie Oleksiak (10)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:50Eeli Tolvanen Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Matty Beniers (19), Jamie Oleksiak (10)ANA 0 – 1 SEA · SEA 56% → 71% +15SEA 56% → 71%+15 pts
- P116:51Jordan Eberle Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Jared McCann (28), Justin Schultz (15)ANA 0 – 2 SEA · SEA 71% → 84% +13SEA 71% → 84%+13 pts
- P25:08Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Eeli Tolvanen (22), Matty Beniers (20)ANA 0 – 3 SEA · SEA 86% → 94% +8SEA 86% → 94%+8 pts
- P215:55Matty Beniers Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Eeli Tolvanen (23)ANA 0 – 4 SEA · SEA 97% → >99% +3SEA 97% → >99%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kraken 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 62%
- Fair odds
- SEA -129
- ANA +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 2.9 – 3.3 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1422 | 1465 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | +5 | ANA: John Gibson: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) · SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +84 Elo | SEA 61.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 56.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 312.5 | Goals scored | 2.728th of 31 |
| 29th of 313.6 | Goals allowed | 2.910th of 31 |
| 29th of 31−1.1 | Margin | −0.324th of 31 |
| 30th of 3145.2% | Shot share | 48.9%20th of 31 |
| 28th of 3189.5% | Save percentage | 90.9%9th of 31 |
| 28th of 312–8 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 31 |
| 24th of 3113–20 | Road vs home | 13–2227th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ANA 0–1 SEA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.