Los Angeles Kings at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Arthur KaliyevGoals1
- Quinton ByfieldAssists1
- Arthur KaliyevPoints1
Oilers- Connor McDavidGoals1
- Leon DraisaitlAssists3
- Connor McDavidPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:19Cody Ceci Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (58)1–4
- P313:47Arthur Kaliyev Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Quinton Byfield (34)1–3
- P35:05Evan Bouchard Goal (16) Slap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (95), Leon Draisaitl (57)0–3
- P219:44Adam Henrique Goal (21) Deflected, assists: Leon Draisaitl (56), Connor McDavid (94)0–2
- P15:37Connor McDavid Goal (27) Backhand, assists: Mattias Ekholm (29), Evan Bouchard (58)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:37Connor McDavid Goal (27) Backhand, assists: Mattias Ekholm (29), Evan Bouchard (58)LA 0 – 1 EDM · EDM 55% → 70% +14EDM 55% → 70%+14 pts
- P219:44Adam Henrique Goal (21) Deflected, assists: Leon Draisaitl (56), Connor McDavid (94)LA 0 – 2 EDM · EDM 76% → 91% +15EDM 76% → 91%+15 pts
- P35:05Evan Bouchard Goal (16) Slap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (95), Leon Draisaitl (57)LA 0 – 3 EDM · EDM 94% → 99% +5EDM 94% → 99%+5 pts
- P313:47Arthur Kaliyev Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Quinton Byfield (34)LA 1 – 3 EDM · LA <1% → 1% +1LA <1% → 1%+1 pts
- P319:19Cody Ceci Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (58)LA 1 – 4 EDM · EDM >99% → 100% +0EDM >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Oilers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 58%
- Fair odds
- EDM -125
- LA +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 2.9 – 3.3 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | −3 | LA: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +54 Elo | EDM 57.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 55.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 313.1 | Goals scored | 3.64th of 31 |
| 3rd of 312.6 | Goals allowed | 2.910th of 31 |
| 10th of 31+0.5 | Margin | +0.75th of 31 |
| 5th of 3153.4% | Shot share | 54.5%3rd of 31 |
| 5th of 3191.4% | Save percentage | 90.5%14th of 31 |
| 6th of 317–3 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 31 |
| 7th of 3119–15 | Road vs home | 22–113rd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LA 1–2 EDM in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.