Los Angeles Kings at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Anze KopitarGoals1
- Anze KopitarAssists1
- Anze KopitarPoints2
Canucks- Sam LaffertyGoals1
- J.T. MillerAssists1
- Sam LaffertyPoints1
Scoring summary
- P317:07Brock Boeser Goal (37) Slap Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (68), J.T. Miller (57)3–2
- P218:20Anze Kopitar Goal (24) Backhand, assists: Adrian Kempe (41), Quinton Byfield (33)3–1
- P216:29Blake Lizotte Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Spence (19), Anze Kopitar (40)2–1
- P112:50Sam Lafferty Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Ian Cole (8)1–1
- P17:01Kevin Fiala Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (20), Viktor Arvidsson (4)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:01Kevin Fiala Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (20), Viktor Arvidsson (4)LA 1 – 0 VAN · LA 45% → 60% +15LA 45% → 60%+15 pts
- P112:50Sam Lafferty Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Ian Cole (8)LA 1 – 1 VAN · VAN 39% → 55% +16VAN 39% → 55%+16 pts
- P216:29Blake Lizotte Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Spence (19), Anze Kopitar (40)LA 2 – 1 VAN · LA 46% → 69% +22LA 46% → 69%+22 pts
- P218:20Anze Kopitar Goal (24) Backhand, assists: Adrian Kempe (41), Quinton Byfield (33)LA 3 – 1 VAN · LA 70% → 87% +17LA 70% → 87%+17 pts
- P317:07Brock Boeser Goal (37) Slap Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (68), J.T. Miller (57)LA 3 – 2 VAN · VAN <1% → 5% +5VAN <1% → 5%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Canucks 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- VAN 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VAN 59%
- Fair odds
- VAN -126
- LA +126 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 2.9 – 3.3 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1547 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | −4 | LA: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · VAN: Casey DeSmith: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈18 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +61 Elo | VAN 58.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VAN 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VAN 55.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 313.1 | Goals scored | 3.55th of 31 |
| 3rd of 312.6 | Goals allowed | 2.74th of 31 |
| 11th of 31+0.4 | Margin | +0.81st of 31 |
| 5th of 3153.5% | Shot share | 49.5%19th of 31 |
| 5th of 3191.4% | Save percentage | 91.1%8th of 31 |
| 9th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 31 |
| 7th of 3118–15 | Road vs home | 23–113rd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LA 1–1 VAN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.