San Jose Sharks at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Luke KuninGoals1
- Nico SturmAssists1
- Mikael GranlundPoints1
BluesScoring summary
- P316:47Jan Rutta Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Nico Sturm (8)4–0
- P217:58Luke Kunin Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–0
- P212:05Mikael Granlund Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Fabian Zetterlund (16), William Eklund (23)2–0
- P28:30Filip Zadina Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P28:30Filip Zadina Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: noneSJ 1 – 0 STL · SJ 44% → 64% +20SJ 44% → 64%+20 pts
- P212:05Mikael Granlund Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Fabian Zetterlund (16), William Eklund (23)SJ 2 – 0 STL · SJ 65% → 82% +17SJ 65% → 82%+17 pts
- P217:58Luke Kunin Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: noneSJ 3 – 0 STL · SJ 86% → 95% +9SJ 86% → 95%+9 pts
- P316:47Jan Rutta Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Nico Sturm (8)SJ 4 – 0 STL · SJ >99% → >99% +0SJ >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blues 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 72%
- Fair odds
- STL -142
- SJ +142 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.8 – 3.3 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1382 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | −1 | SJ: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) · STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +163 Elo | STL 71.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 58.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 312.2 | Goals scored | 2.922nd of 31 |
| 31st of 314.1 | Goals allowed | 3.012th of 31 |
| 31st of 31−1.9 | Margin | 0.016th of 31 |
| 31st of 3142.1% | Shot share | 46.5%27th of 31 |
| 30th of 3189.1% | Save percentage | 91.6%3rd of 31 |
| 30th of 311–9 | Last 10 | 7–37th of 31 |
| 31st of 316–30 | Road vs home | 21–138th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SJ 1–0 STL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.