Dallas Stars at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Wyatt JohnstonGoals2
- Jamie BennAssists2
- Wyatt JohnstonPoints3
Sharks- William EklundGoals1
- Mikael GranlundAssists2
- William EklundPoints2
Scoring summary
- P311:45Jason Robertson Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Miro Heiskanen (40), Roope Hintz (32)6–3
- P210:13Wyatt Johnston Goal (28) Backhand, assists: Jamie Benn (35), Joe Pavelski (35)5–3
- P28:58Klim Kostin Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (38)4–3
- P28:05Jamie Benn Goal (17) Batted, assists: Wyatt Johnston (29), Nils Lundkvist (16)4–2
- P22:00William Eklund Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: Thomas Bordeleau (3), Mikael Granlund (37)3–2
- P20:54Alexander Barabanov Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: William Eklund (22), Jan Rutta (13)3–1
- P20:14Jason Robertson Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–0
- P116:28Mason Marchment Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Steel (14)2–0
- P112:06Wyatt Johnston Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Jamie Benn (34)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:06Wyatt Johnston Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Jamie Benn (34)DAL 1 – 0 SJ · DAL 50% → 66% +16DAL 50% → 66%+16 pts
- P22:00William Eklund Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: Thomas Bordeleau (3), Mikael Granlund (37)DAL 3 – 2 SJ · SJ 18% → 33% +14SJ 18% → 33%+14 pts
- P28:05Jamie Benn Goal (17) Batted, assists: Wyatt Johnston (29), Nils Lundkvist (16)DAL 4 – 2 SJ · DAL 69% → 84% +15DAL 69% → 84%+15 pts
- P28:58Klim Kostin Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (38)DAL 4 – 3 SJ · SJ 16% → 31% +15SJ 16% → 31%+15 pts
- P210:13Wyatt Johnston Goal (28) Backhand, assists: Jamie Benn (35), Joe Pavelski (35)DAL 5 – 3 SJ · DAL 70% → 85% +15DAL 70% → 85%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Sharks 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SJ 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SJ 33%
- Fair odds
- SJ -102
- DAL +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 3.1 – 3.1 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1539 | 1386 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | 0 | DAL: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) · SJ: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +125 Elo | DAL 67.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SJ 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SJ 50.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 313.6 | Goals scored | 2.330th of 31 |
| 16th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 4.131st of 31 |
| 6th of 31+0.6 | Margin | −1.931st of 31 |
| 10th of 3151.6% | Shot share | 42.2%31st of 31 |
| 20th of 3190.0% | Save percentage | 89.1%30th of 31 |
| 4th of 317–3 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 31 |
| 3rd of 3121–14 | Road vs home | 10–2330th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DAL 2–0 SJ in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.