Chicago Blackhawks at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Seth JonesGoals2
- Ryan DonatoAssists2
- Ryan DonatoPoints3
Sharks- Fabian ZetterlundGoals2
- Fabian ZetterlundAssists1
- Fabian ZetterlundPoints3
Scoring summary
- OT0:18Seth Jones Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Philipp Kurashev (31)5–4
- P319:13Philipp Kurashev Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Donato (14), Nick Foligno (19)4–4
- P36:20Seth Jones Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Wyatt Kaiser (5), Connor Bedard (34)3–4
- P213:20Tyler Johnson Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Donato (13), Taylor Raddysh (9)2–4
- P26:45Ryan Donato Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Taylor Raddysh (8), Tyler Johnson (12)1–4
- P21:24Fabian Zetterlund Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: William Eklund (21), Mikael Granlund (36)0–4
- P20:16Fabian Zetterlund Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Klim Kostin (5), Mario Ferraro (17)0–3
- P110:17Thomas Bordeleau Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Justin Bailey (9), Nico Sturm (7)0–2
- P13:53Thomas Bordeleau Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Fabian Zetterlund (15), Calen Addison (16)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:53Thomas Bordeleau Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Fabian Zetterlund (15), Calen Addison (16)CHI 0 – 1 SJ · SJ 55% → 69% +14SJ 55% → 69%+14 pts
- P110:17Thomas Bordeleau Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Justin Bailey (9), Nico Sturm (7)CHI 0 – 2 SJ · SJ 70% → 82% +12SJ 70% → 82%+12 pts
- P36:20Seth Jones Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Wyatt Kaiser (5), Connor Bedard (34)CHI 3 – 4 SJ · CHI 6% → 20% +15CHI 6% → 20%+15 pts
- P319:13Philipp Kurashev Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Donato (14), Nick Foligno (19)CHI 4 – 4 SJ · CHI <1% → 49% +49CHI <1% → 49%+49 pts
- OT0:18Seth Jones Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Philipp Kurashev (31)CHI 5 – 4 SJ · CHI 49% → 90% +41CHI 49% → 90%+41 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Sharks 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SJ 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SJ 55%
- Fair odds
- SJ -122
- CHI +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 3.0 – 3.2 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1396 | 1389 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | +9 | CHI: Petr Mrazek: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) · SJ: Devin Cooley: team allows 0.22 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SJ +33 Elo | SJ 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SJ 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SJ 55.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 312.1 | Goals scored | 2.230th of 31 |
| 27th of 313.6 | Goals allowed | 4.131st of 31 |
| 30th of 31−1.5 | Margin | −1.931st of 31 |
| 29th of 3145.4% | Shot share | 42.1%31st of 31 |
| 25th of 3189.6% | Save percentage | 89.2%30th of 31 |
| 28th of 312–8 | Last 10 | 1–931st of 31 |
| 31st of 314–28 | Road vs home | 10–2230th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHI 2–0 SJ in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.