Calgary Flames at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Andrei KuzmenkoGoals2
- MacKenzie WeegarAssists2
- Andrei KuzmenkoPoints2
Blues- Pavel BuchnevichGoals2
- Jordan BinningtonAssists2
- Pavel BuchnevichPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:45Pavel Buchnevich Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: Torey Krug (33), Jordan Binnington (3)3–5
- P32:04Brandon Saad Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Kyrou (33), Brayden Schenn (22)3–4
- P216:50Andrei Kuzmenko Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Nazem Kadri (38), MacKenzie Weegar (26)3–3
- P28:54Pavel Buchnevich Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Torey Krug (32), Jake Neighbours (11)2–3
- P23:27Jake Neighbours Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (51), Colton Parayko (15)2–2
- P118:37Jonathan Huberdeau Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: MacKenzie Weegar (25), Rasmus Andersson (26)2–1
- P114:48Andrei Kuzmenko Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–1
- P113:02Zack Bolduc Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Alexey Toropchenko (6), Jordan Binnington (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:37Jonathan Huberdeau Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: MacKenzie Weegar (25), Rasmus Andersson (26)CGY 2 – 1 STL · CGY 45% → 62% +17CGY 45% → 62%+17 pts
- P23:27Jake Neighbours Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (51), Colton Parayko (15)CGY 2 – 2 STL · STL 36% → 55% +18STL 36% → 55%+18 pts
- P28:54Pavel Buchnevich Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Torey Krug (32), Jake Neighbours (11)CGY 2 – 3 STL · STL 54% → 73% +19STL 54% → 73%+19 pts
- P216:50Andrei Kuzmenko Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Nazem Kadri (38), MacKenzie Weegar (26)CGY 3 – 3 STL · CGY 25% → 46% +21CGY 25% → 46%+21 pts
- P32:04Brandon Saad Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Kyrou (33), Brayden Schenn (22)CGY 3 – 4 STL · STL 53% → 77% +24STL 53% → 77%+24 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blues 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 60%
- Fair odds
- STL -127
- CGY +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 2.9 – 3.3 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −6 | +4 | CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.15 more goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +69 Elo | STL 59.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 56.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 313.0 | Goals scored | 2.924th of 31 |
| 22nd of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 3.011th of 31 |
| 24th of 31−0.3 | Margin | −0.118th of 31 |
| 14th of 3150.9% | Shot share | 46.6%27th of 31 |
| 23rd of 3189.9% | Save percentage | 91.6%3rd of 31 |
| 23rd of 313–7 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 31 |
| 22nd of 3114–19 | Road vs home | 20–139th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CGY 0–2 STL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.