Calgary Flames at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- MacKenzie WeegarGoals1
- Nazem KadriAssists1
- MacKenzie WeegarPoints1
Blackhawks- Jason DickinsonGoals2
- Joey AndersonAssists2
- Jason DickinsonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P312:25MacKenzie Weegar Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Nazem Kadri (37), Connor Zary (18)1–3
- P34:15Jason Dickinson Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Joey Anderson (11), Landon Slaggert (2)0–3
- P115:15Jason Dickinson Goal (19) Slap Shot, assists: Joey Anderson (10), Landon Slaggert (1)0–2
- P13:35Seth Jones Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Philipp Kurashev (32), Connor Bedard (35)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:35Seth Jones Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Philipp Kurashev (32), Connor Bedard (35)CGY 0 – 1 CHI · CHI 52% → 67% +14CHI 52% → 67%+14 pts
- P115:15Jason Dickinson Goal (19) Slap Shot, assists: Joey Anderson (10), Landon Slaggert (1)CGY 0 – 2 CHI · CHI 68% → 81% +13CHI 68% → 81%+13 pts
- P34:15Jason Dickinson Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Joey Anderson (11), Landon Slaggert (2)CGY 0 – 3 CHI · CHI 93% → 98% +6CHI 93% → 98%+6 pts
- P312:25MacKenzie Weegar Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Nazem Kadri (37), Connor Zary (18)CGY 1 – 3 CHI · CGY <1% → 2% +2CGY <1% → 2%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blackhawks 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI 42%
- Fair odds
- CHI -110
- CGY +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 3.0 – 3.2 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1398 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +9 | +3 | CGY: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.22 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) · CHI: Petr Mrazek: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CGY +58 Elo | CGY 58.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 52.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 313.0 | Goals scored | 2.131st of 31 |
| 21st of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 3.628th of 31 |
| 23rd of 31−0.3 | Margin | −1.430th of 31 |
| 14th of 3150.8% | Shot share | 45.5%29th of 31 |
| 22nd of 3189.9% | Save percentage | 89.5%26th of 31 |
| 22nd of 313–7 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 31 |
| 21st of 3114–18 | Road vs home | 13–2226th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CGY 1–1 CHI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.