San Jose Sharks at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Mikael GranlundGoals1
- Marc-Edouard VlasicAssists1
- Mikael GranlundPoints1
Wild- Matt BoldyGoals1
- Kirill KaprizovAssists2
- Matt BoldyPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:06Ryan Hartman Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Gustavsson (1)1–3
- P30:18Matt Boldy Goal (25) Backhand, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (45)1–2
- P29:26Mikael Granlund Goal (11) Batted, assists: Jan Rutta (14), Marc-Edouard Vlasic (5)1–1
- P116:01Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (44), Matt Boldy (33)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P116:01Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (44), Matt Boldy (33)SJ 0 – 1 MIN · MIN 57% → 73% +16MIN 57% → 73%+16 pts
- P29:26Mikael Granlund Goal (11) Batted, assists: Jan Rutta (14), Marc-Edouard Vlasic (5)SJ 1 – 1 MIN · SJ 25% → 44% +19SJ 25% → 44%+19 pts
- P30:18Matt Boldy Goal (25) Backhand, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (45)SJ 1 – 2 MIN · MIN 55% → 78% +23MIN 55% → 78%+23 pts
- P319:06Ryan Hartman Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Gustavsson (1)SJ 1 – 3 MIN · MIN >99% → >99% +0MIN >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Wild 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 71%
- Fair odds
- MIN -140
- SJ +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.9 – 3.3 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1384 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | +6 | SJ: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) · MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +155 Elo | MIN 71.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 58.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 312.3 | Goals scored | 3.116th of 31 |
| 31st of 314.1 | Goals allowed | 3.320th of 31 |
| 31st of 31−1.9 | Margin | −0.220th of 31 |
| 31st of 3142.1% | Shot share | 49.9%18th of 31 |
| 30th of 3189.0% | Save percentage | 89.6%26th of 31 |
| 30th of 311–9 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 31 |
| 30th of 316–29 | Road vs home | 17–1517th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SJ 0–1 MIN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.