Boston Bruins at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- David PastrnakGoals1
- Danton HeinenAssists2
- David PastrnakPoints2
PredatorsScoring summary
- P318:36David Pastrnak Goal (46) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Zacha (34), Danton Heinen (17)3–0
- P317:18Pavel Zacha Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Danton Heinen (16), David Pastrnak (58)2–0
- P313:18Charlie Coyle Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Brad Marchand (37), Linus Ullmark (1)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P313:18Charlie Coyle Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Brad Marchand (37), Linus Ullmark (1)BOS 1 – 0 NSH · BOS 48% → 85% +37BOS 48% → 85%+37 pts
- P317:18Pavel Zacha Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Danton Heinen (16), David Pastrnak (58)BOS 2 – 0 NSH · BOS 95% → >99% +5BOS 95% → >99%+5 pts
- P318:36David Pastrnak Goal (46) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Zacha (34), Danton Heinen (17)BOS 3 – 0 NSH · BOS >99% → >99% +0BOS >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Predators 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NSH 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NSH 57%
- Fair odds
- NSH -124
- BOS +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 2.9 – 3.2 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1537 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +7 | BOS: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NSH +46 Elo | NSH 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 55.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 3.313th of 31 |
| 6th of 312.8 | Goals allowed | 2.910th of 31 |
| 8th of 31+0.5 | Margin | +0.411th of 31 |
| 22nd of 3148.9% | Shot share | 50.9%14th of 31 |
| 3rd of 3191.5% | Save percentage | 91.0%10th of 31 |
| 10th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 31 |
| 8th of 3120–16 | Road vs home | 20–1514th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 1–0 NSH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.