Boston Bruins at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- Hampus LindholmGoals1
- David PastrnakAssists1
- Hampus LindholmPoints1
Capitals- Michael SgarbossaGoals1
- Max PaciorettyAssists1
- John CarlsonPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Kevin Shattenkirk Goal Wrist Shot3–2
- SO0:00Sonny Milano Goal Backhand3–2
- SO0:00David Pastrnak Goal Wrist Shot3–2
- SO0:00Dylan Strome Goal Backhand3–2
- SO0:00Jake DeBrusk Goal Wrist Shot3–2
- P214:03John Carlson Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Max Pacioretty (17), Dylan Strome (36)2–2
- P22:22John Beecher Goal (7) Backhand, assists: none2–1
- P21:20Michael Sgarbossa Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Jensen (13), Nic Dowd (9)1–1
- P118:47Hampus Lindholm Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Zacha (33), David Pastrnak (57)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:47Hampus Lindholm Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Zacha (33), David Pastrnak (57)BOS 1 – 0 WSH · BOS 46% → 64% +17BOS 46% → 64%+17 pts
- P21:20Michael Sgarbossa Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Jensen (13), Nic Dowd (9)BOS 1 – 1 WSH · WSH 36% → 53% +18WSH 36% → 53%+18 pts
- P22:22John Beecher Goal (7) Backhand, assists: noneBOS 2 – 1 WSH · BOS 47% → 65% +18BOS 47% → 65%+18 pts
- P214:03John Carlson Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Max Pacioretty (17), Dylan Strome (36)BOS 2 – 2 WSH · WSH 31% → 53% +21WSH 31% → 53%+21 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Capitals 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 52%
- Fair odds
- WSH -119
- BOS +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 2.9 – 3.2 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −4 | +2 | BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.11 more goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) · WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +11 Elo | WSH 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 54.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 2.826th of 31 |
| 6th of 312.8 | Goals allowed | 3.117th of 31 |
| 8th of 31+0.5 | Margin | −0.324th of 31 |
| 22nd of 3148.8% | Shot share | 46.6%25th of 31 |
| 4th of 3191.5% | Save percentage | 90.3%16th of 31 |
| 11th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 6–411th of 31 |
| 8th of 3119–16 | Road vs home | 20–1514th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 0–1 WSH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.