Detroit Red Wings at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Alex DeBrincatGoals1
- J.T. CompherAssists2
- Alex DeBrincatPoints2
Capitals- Dylan StromeGoals2
- John CarlsonAssists2
- Dylan StromePoints2
Scoring summary
- OT1:55Dylan Strome Goal (25) Tip-In, assists: John Carlson (38), Hendrix Lapierre (9)3–4
- P314:40Patrick Kane Goal (17) Slap Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (35)3–3
- P34:49Dylan Strome Goal (24) Backhand, assists: John Carlson (37), Max Pacioretty (16)2–3
- P30:35Connor McMichael Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: T.J. Oshie (11), Martin Fehervary (11)2–2
- P219:17David Perron Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Compher (24), Dylan Larkin (29)2–1
- P24:53Alex DeBrincat Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Jeff Petry (18), J.T. Compher (23)1–1
- P22:09Nic Dowd Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Jensen (11), Beck Malenstyn (14)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P219:17David Perron Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Compher (24), Dylan Larkin (29)DET 2 – 1 WSH · DET 47% → 71% +24DET 47% → 71%+24 pts
- P30:35Connor McMichael Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: T.J. Oshie (11), Martin Fehervary (11)DET 2 – 2 WSH · WSH 28% → 53% +24WSH 28% → 53%+24 pts
- P34:49Dylan Strome Goal (24) Backhand, assists: John Carlson (37), Max Pacioretty (16)DET 2 – 3 WSH · WSH 53% → 79% +26WSH 53% → 79%+26 pts
- P314:40Patrick Kane Goal (17) Slap Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (35)DET 3 – 3 WSH · DET 10% → 48% +38DET 10% → 48%+38 pts
- OT1:55Dylan Strome Goal (25) Tip-In, assists: John Carlson (38), Hendrix Lapierre (9)DET 3 – 4 WSH · WSH 51% → 95% +44WSH 51% → 95%+44 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Capitals 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 55%
- Fair odds
- WSH -122
- DET +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.0 – 3.2 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | +6 | DET: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) · WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +36 Elo | WSH 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 55.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 313.5 | Goals scored | 2.826th of 31 |
| 22nd of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 3.118th of 31 |
| 15th of 31+0.2 | Margin | −0.323rd of 31 |
| 26th of 3146.7% | Shot share | 46.9%25th of 31 |
| 15th of 3190.4% | Save percentage | 90.3%16th of 31 |
| 22nd of 313–7 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 31 |
| 18th of 3115–17 | Road vs home | 19–1514th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 1–0 WSH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.