Boston Bruins at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- David PastrnakGoals1
- David PastrnakAssists1
- David PastrnakPoints2
Panthers- Evan RodriguesGoals1
- Oliver Ekman-LarssonAssists1
- Carter VerhaeghePoints1
Scoring summary
- P317:39Pavel Zacha Goal (18) Deflected, assists: David Pastrnak (56), Parker Wotherspoon (8)4–3
- P315:38Trent Frederic Goal (18) Slap Shot, assists: Brad Marchand (36), Jeremy Swayman (1)3–3
- P39:53Carter Verhaeghe Goal (33) Wrist Shot, assists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson (20), Matthew Tkachuk (56)2–3
- P215:59David Pastrnak Goal (45) Wrist Shot, assists: Charlie McAvoy (34)2–2
- P118:56Sam Reinhart Goal (51) Deflected, assists: Eetu Luostarinen (10), Dmitry Kulikov (17)1–2
- P117:43Charlie McAvoy Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Matt Grzelcyk (8), Pavel Zacha (31)1–1
- P10:27Evan Rodrigues Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Aleksander Barkov (49), Vladimir Tarasenko (26)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:56Sam Reinhart Goal (51) Deflected, assists: Eetu Luostarinen (10), Dmitry Kulikov (17)BOS 1 – 2 FLA · FLA 55% → 71% +16FLA 55% → 71%+16 pts
- P215:59David Pastrnak Goal (45) Wrist Shot, assists: Charlie McAvoy (34)BOS 2 – 2 FLA · BOS 25% → 46% +21BOS 25% → 46%+21 pts
- P39:53Carter Verhaeghe Goal (33) Wrist Shot, assists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson (20), Matthew Tkachuk (56)BOS 2 – 3 FLA · FLA 52% → 83% +30FLA 52% → 83%+30 pts
- P315:38Trent Frederic Goal (18) Slap Shot, assists: Brad Marchand (36), Jeremy Swayman (1)BOS 3 – 3 FLA · BOS 8% → 48% +40BOS 8% → 48%+40 pts
- P317:39Pavel Zacha Goal (18) Deflected, assists: David Pastrnak (56), Parker Wotherspoon (8)BOS 4 – 3 FLA · BOS 49% → 97% +48BOS 49% → 97%+48 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Panthers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 59%
- Fair odds
- FLA -126
- BOS +126 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 2.9 – 3.2 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1557 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −5 | −4 | BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) · FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +64 Elo | FLA 59.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 55.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 3.215th of 31 |
| 5th of 312.8 | Goals allowed | 2.52nd of 31 |
| 8th of 31+0.6 | Margin | +0.73rd of 31 |
| 22nd of 3148.9% | Shot share | 54.5%3rd of 31 |
| 4th of 3191.5% | Save percentage | 91.8%2nd of 31 |
| 10th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 31 |
| 8th of 3118–15 | Road vs home | 20–138th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 2–0 FLA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.