Washington Capitals at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Nic DowdGoals1
- Hendrix LapierreAssists1
- Nic DowdPoints1
Maple Leafs- Tyler BertuzziGoals2
- TJ BrodieAssists1
- Tyler BertuzziPoints2
Scoring summary
- P310:11Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: none1–5
- P31:06Bobby McMann Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: John Tavares (34), Simon Benoit (4)1–4
- P211:38Connor Dewar Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Ryan Reaves (2), David Kampf (9)1–3
- P25:27Nic Dowd Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Nick Jensen (12), Hendrix Lapierre (10)1–2
- P20:18Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (17) Deflected, assists: TJ Brodie (21), Auston Matthews (35)0–2
- P110:09Mark Giordano Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Knies (18)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:09Mark Giordano Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Knies (18)WSH 0 – 1 TOR · TOR 55% → 70% +15TOR 55% → 70%+15 pts
- P20:18Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (17) Deflected, assists: TJ Brodie (21), Auston Matthews (35)WSH 0 – 2 TOR · TOR 71% → 84% +13TOR 71% → 84%+13 pts
- P25:27Nic Dowd Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Nick Jensen (12), Hendrix Lapierre (10)WSH 1 – 2 TOR · WSH 14% → 28% +14WSH 14% → 28%+14 pts
- P211:38Connor Dewar Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Ryan Reaves (2), David Kampf (9)WSH 1 – 3 TOR · TOR 73% → 88% +14TOR 73% → 88%+14 pts
- P31:06Bobby McMann Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: John Tavares (34), Simon Benoit (4)WSH 1 – 4 TOR · TOR 92% → 98% +6TOR 92% → 98%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Maple Leafs 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 57%
- Fair odds
- TOR -124
- WSH +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.0 – 3.3 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | −6 | WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) · TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.15 more goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +47 Elo | TOR 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 55.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 312.8 | Goals scored | 3.63rd of 31 |
| 17th of 313.1 | Goals allowed | 3.219th of 31 |
| 23rd of 31−0.2 | Margin | +0.411th of 31 |
| 25th of 3146.9% | Shot share | 52.3%7th of 31 |
| 16th of 3190.3% | Save percentage | 89.9%21st of 31 |
| 6th of 317–3 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 31 |
| 16th of 3116–18 | Road vs home | 18–1617th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 0–2 TOR in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.