Boston Bruins at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- Danton HeinenGoals1
- Pavel ZachaAssists1
- Danton HeinenPoints1
Lightning- Nikita KucherovGoals1
- Victor HedmanAssists1
- Nikita KucherovPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:33Nikita Kucherov Goal (42) Wrap-around, assists: Victor Hedman (58), Andrei Vasilevskiy (2)1–3
- P26:50Brayden Point Goal (42) Wrap-around, assists: Emil Lilleberg (4), Nick Perbix (21)1–2
- P117:11Danton Heinen Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Zacha (32)1–1
- P110:06Mitchell Chaffee Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Nicholas Paul (20), Michael Eyssimont (11)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:06Mitchell Chaffee Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Nicholas Paul (20), Michael Eyssimont (11)BOS 0 – 1 TB · TB 58% → 73% +15TB 58% → 73%+15 pts
- P117:11Danton Heinen Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Zacha (32)BOS 1 – 1 TB · BOS 27% → 42% +16BOS 27% → 42%+16 pts
- P26:50Brayden Point Goal (42) Wrap-around, assists: Emil Lilleberg (4), Nick Perbix (21)BOS 1 – 2 TB · TB 57% → 75% +18TB 57% → 75%+18 pts
- P319:33Nikita Kucherov Goal (42) Wrap-around, assists: Victor Hedman (58), Andrei Vasilevskiy (2)BOS 1 – 3 TB · TB >99% → 100% +0TB >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Lightning 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 59%
- Fair odds
- TB -145
- BOS +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 2.9 – 3.4 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | BOS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +2 | BOS: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) · TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +61 Elo | TB 58.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 59.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 3.55th of 31 |
| 5th of 312.8 | Goals allowed | 3.323rd of 31 |
| 8th of 31+0.6 | Margin | +0.214th of 31 |
| 22nd of 3148.9% | Shot share | 48.9%21st of 31 |
| 4th of 3191.5% | Save percentage | 89.5%27th of 31 |
| 10th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 31 |
| 7th of 3119–15 | Road vs home | 20–138th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 1–2 TB in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.