New York Islanders at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Matt MartinGoals1
- Casey CizikasAssists1
- Matt MartinPoints1
Flyers- Travis SanheimGoals1
- Jamie DrysdaleAssists1
- Travis SanheimPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT1:24Brock Nelson Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Palmieri (20)4–3
- P319:50Morgan Frost Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Jamie Drysdale (7), Travis Konecny (34)3–3
- P217:54Anders Lee Goal (19) Tip-In, assists: Alexander Romanov (11)3–2
- P20:43Travis Sanheim Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–2
- P112:21Bo Horvat Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (52), Casey Cizikas (12)2–1
- P112:03Matt Martin Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle MacLean (4)1–1
- P14:57Noah Cates Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:21Bo Horvat Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (52), Casey Cizikas (12)NYI 2 – 1 PHI · NYI 46% → 62% +16NYI 46% → 62%+16 pts
- P20:43Travis Sanheim Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: noneNYI 2 – 2 PHI · PHI 36% → 54% +18PHI 36% → 54%+18 pts
- P217:54Anders Lee Goal (19) Tip-In, assists: Alexander Romanov (11)NYI 3 – 2 PHI · NYI 47% → 70% +23NYI 47% → 70%+23 pts
- P319:50Morgan Frost Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Jamie Drysdale (7), Travis Konecny (34)NYI 3 – 3 PHI · PHI <1% → 50% +50PHI <1% → 50%+50 pts
- OT1:24Brock Nelson Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Palmieri (20)NYI 4 – 3 PHI · NYI 49% → 93% +44NYI 49% → 93%+44 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Flyers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 55%
- Fair odds
- PHI -122
- NYI +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 2.9 – 3.2 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1465 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | −7 | NYI: Semyon Varlamov: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈18 weighted starts) · PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.16 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +36 Elo | PHI 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 55.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 313.0 | Goals scored | 2.925th of 31 |
| 25th of 313.4 | Goals allowed | 3.219th of 31 |
| 26th of 31−0.5 | Margin | −0.324th of 31 |
| 23rd of 3147.5% | Shot share | 54.9%2nd of 31 |
| 11th of 3190.6% | Save percentage | 89.2%30th of 31 |
| 27th of 312–8 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 31 |
| 24th of 3114–22 | Road vs home | 18–1921st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYI 1–1 PHI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.