New York Islanders at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Jean-Gabriel PageauGoals1
- Casey CizikasAssists2
- Jean-Gabriel PageauPoints2
Panthers- Aleksander BarkovGoals1
- Aleksander BarkovAssists1
- Aleksander BarkovPoints2
Scoring summary
- P210:42Jean-Gabriel Pageau Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Pelech (13), Pierre Engvall (15)3–2
- P28:43Mathew Barzal Goal (23) Tip-In, assists: Noah Dobson (58), Casey Cizikas (11)2–2
- P26:32Aleksander Barkov Goal (19) Tip-In, assists: Sam Reinhart (34), Niko Mikkola (11)1–2
- P113:20Ryan Pulock Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau (20), Casey Cizikas (10)1–1
- P18:13Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Aleksander Barkov (50), Dmitry Kulikov (18)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:13Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Aleksander Barkov (50), Dmitry Kulikov (18)NYI 0 – 1 FLA · FLA 57% → 72% +15FLA 57% → 72%+15 pts
- P113:20Ryan Pulock Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau (20), Casey Cizikas (10)NYI 1 – 1 FLA · NYI 28% → 43% +15NYI 28% → 43%+15 pts
- P26:32Aleksander Barkov Goal (19) Tip-In, assists: Sam Reinhart (34), Niko Mikkola (11)NYI 1 – 2 FLA · FLA 56% → 74% +18FLA 56% → 74%+18 pts
- P28:43Mathew Barzal Goal (23) Tip-In, assists: Noah Dobson (58), Casey Cizikas (11)NYI 2 – 2 FLA · NYI 26% → 44% +19NYI 26% → 44%+19 pts
- P210:42Jean-Gabriel Pageau Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Pelech (13), Pierre Engvall (15)NYI 3 – 2 FLA · NYI 45% → 65% +20NYI 45% → 65%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Panthers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 68%
- Fair odds
- FLA -136
- NYI +136 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 2.9 – 3.3 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1464 | 1554 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | +8 | NYI: Semyon Varlamov: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) · FLA: Anthony Stolarz: team allows 0.21 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +129 Elo | FLA 67.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 57.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.215th of 31 |
| 25th of 313.4 | Goals allowed | 2.52nd of 31 |
| 26th of 31−0.5 | Margin | +0.73rd of 31 |
| 23rd of 3147.6% | Shot share | 54.4%4th of 31 |
| 11th of 3190.6% | Save percentage | 91.7%2nd of 31 |
| 24th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 31 |
| 25th of 3113–21 | Road vs home | 20–1412th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYI 1–1 FLA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.