New York Islanders at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Kyle PalmieriGoals1
- Ryan PulockAssists1
- Kyle PalmieriPoints1
Lightning- Anthony CirelliGoals2
- Nikita KucherovAssists2
- Anthony CirelliPoints3
Scoring summary
- P317:14Anthony Cirelli Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (84), Victor Hedman (59)1–4
- P30:21Steven Stamkos Goal (30) Tip-In, assists: Emil Lilleberg (5), Brandon Hagel (43)1–3
- P115:00Anthony Cirelli Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Perbix (22), Brandon Hagel (42)1–2
- P114:25Darren Raddysh Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (83), Anthony Cirelli (22)1–1
- P12:25Kyle Palmieri Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Pulock (11), Mike Reilly (14)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:25Kyle Palmieri Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Pulock (11), Mike Reilly (14)NYI 1 – 0 TB · NYI 43% → 58% +15NYI 43% → 58%+15 pts
- P114:25Darren Raddysh Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (83), Anthony Cirelli (22)NYI 1 – 1 TB · TB 39% → 56% +17TB 39% → 56%+17 pts
- P115:00Anthony Cirelli Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Perbix (22), Brandon Hagel (42)NYI 1 – 2 TB · TB 56% → 71% +16TB 56% → 71%+16 pts
- P30:21Steven Stamkos Goal (30) Tip-In, assists: Emil Lilleberg (5), Brandon Hagel (43)NYI 1 – 3 TB · TB 77% → 92% +15TB 77% → 92%+15 pts
- P317:14Anthony Cirelli Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (84), Victor Hedman (59)NYI 1 – 4 TB · TB >99% → >99% +0TB >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Lightning 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 63%
- Fair odds
- TB -131
- NYI +131 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 2.9 – 3.3 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1468 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | +4 | NYI: Semyon Varlamov: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) · TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +95 Elo | TB 63.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 56.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.55th of 31 |
| 25th of 313.4 | Goals allowed | 3.321st of 31 |
| 26th of 31−0.4 | Margin | +0.214th of 31 |
| 23rd of 3147.6% | Shot share | 49.0%21st of 31 |
| 12th of 3190.6% | Save percentage | 89.5%27th of 31 |
| 24th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 31 |
| 24th of 3114–21 | Road vs home | 21–137th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYI 1–1 TB in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.