Philadelphia Flyers at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Owen TippettGoals1
- Garnet HathawayAssists1
- Owen TippettPoints1
Canadiens- Nick SuzukiGoals1
- Mike MathesonAssists3
- Mike MathesonPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:56Jake Evans Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Mike Matheson (41), Joel Armia (6)1–4
- P318:59Owen Tippett Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Garnet Hathaway (7), Travis Konecny (33)1–3
- P317:05Joel Armia Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Mike Matheson (40), Kaiden Guhle (15)0–3
- P116:46Jesse Ylönen Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jayden Struble (5), Nick Suzuki (39)0–2
- P112:58Nick Suzuki Goal (30) Snap Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovsky (26), Mike Matheson (39)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:58Nick Suzuki Goal (30) Snap Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovsky (26), Mike Matheson (39)PHI 0 – 1 MTL · MTL 54% → 69% +16MTL 54% → 69%+16 pts
- P116:46Jesse Ylönen Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jayden Struble (5), Nick Suzuki (39)PHI 0 – 2 MTL · MTL 70% → 83% +13MTL 70% → 83%+13 pts
- P317:05Joel Armia Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Mike Matheson (40), Kaiden Guhle (15)PHI 0 – 3 MTL · MTL >99% → >99% +0MTL >99% → >99%+0 pts
- P318:59Owen Tippett Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Garnet Hathaway (7), Travis Konecny (33)PHI 1 – 3 MTL · PHI 0% → <1% +0PHI 0% → <1%+0 pts
- P319:56Jake Evans Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Mike Matheson (41), Joel Armia (6)PHI 1 – 4 MTL · MTL 100% → 100% +0MTL 100% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Canadiens 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 52%
- Fair odds
- MTL -119
- PHI +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.0 – 3.2 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1451 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −4 | +9 | PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) · MTL: Cayden Primeau: team allows 0.21 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈14 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MTL +11 Elo | MTL 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MTL 54.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 312.9 | Goals scored | 2.827th of 31 |
| 18th of 313.1 | Goals allowed | 3.526th of 31 |
| 21st of 31−0.2 | Margin | −0.727th of 31 |
| 2nd of 3154.7% | Shot share | 46.0%28th of 31 |
| 29th of 3189.3% | Save percentage | 90.1%19th of 31 |
| 18th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 31 |
| 16th of 3116–18 | Road vs home | 12–2129th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 1–0 MTL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.