Chicago Blackhawks at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Joey AndersonGoals1
- Joey AndersonAssists1
- Joey AndersonPoints2
Flyers- Tyson FoersterGoals1
- Garnet HathawayAssists1
- Tyson FoersterPoints1
Scoring summary
- P314:33MacKenzie Entwistle Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Joey Anderson (12), Wyatt Kaiser (6)5–1
- P39:09Joey Anderson Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Lukas Reichel (9)4–1
- P217:28Nick Foligno Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Philipp Kurashev (33), Tyler Johnson (13)3–1
- P20:17Tyson Foerster Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Garnet Hathaway (8)2–1
- P117:00Philipp Kurashev Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (36), Alex Vlasic (14)2–0
- P12:01Lukas Reichel Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jarred Tinordi (9), Andreas Athanasiou (7)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:01Lukas Reichel Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jarred Tinordi (9), Andreas Athanasiou (7)CHI 1 – 0 PHI · CHI 42% → 57% +15CHI 42% → 57%+15 pts
- P117:00Philipp Kurashev Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (36), Alex Vlasic (14)CHI 2 – 0 PHI · CHI 60% → 76% +15CHI 60% → 76%+15 pts
- P20:17Tyson Foerster Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Garnet Hathaway (8)CHI 2 – 1 PHI · PHI 23% → 39% +16PHI 23% → 39%+16 pts
- P217:28Nick Foligno Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Philipp Kurashev (33), Tyler Johnson (13)CHI 3 – 1 PHI · CHI 68% → 86% +18CHI 68% → 86%+18 pts
- P39:09Joey Anderson Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Lukas Reichel (9)CHI 4 – 1 PHI · CHI 95% → >99% +4CHI 95% → >99%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Flyers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 68%
- Fair odds
- PHI -137
- CHI +137 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.8 – 3.3 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1400 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −21 | −5 | CHI: Arvid Soderblom: team allows 0.52 more goals than with its usual starter (≈18 weighted starts) · PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +134 Elo | PHI 68.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 57.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 312.1 | Goals scored | 2.924th of 31 |
| 28th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 3.118th of 31 |
| 30th of 31−1.4 | Margin | −0.223rd of 31 |
| 29th of 3145.3% | Shot share | 54.8%2nd of 31 |
| 25th of 3189.7% | Save percentage | 89.3%29th of 31 |
| 19th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 31 |
| 31st of 315–29 | Road vs home | 18–1820th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHI 0–1 PHI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.