Chicago Blackhawks at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks
Senators- Parker KellyGoals1
- Jacob Bernard-DockerAssists1
- Claude GirouxPoints1
Scoring summary
- P16:08Parker Kelly Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–2
- P10:36Claude Giroux Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Jacob Bernard-Docker (10)0–1
Turning points
The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:36Claude Giroux Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Jacob Bernard-Docker (10)CHI 0 – 1 OTT · OTT 53% → 67% +14OTT 53% → 67%+14 pts
- P16:08Parker Kelly Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: noneCHI 0 – 2 OTT · OTT 67% → 80% +12OTT 67% → 80%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Senators 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 61%
- Fair odds
- OTT -112
- CHI +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 3.0 – 3.2 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1403 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | OTT on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +1 | CHI: Petr Mrazek: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) · OTT: Anton Forsberg: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +80 Elo | OTT 61.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 52.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 312.1 | Goals scored | 3.313th of 31 |
| 28th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 3.527th of 31 |
| 30th of 31−1.4 | Margin | −0.224th of 31 |
| 29th of 3145.4% | Shot share | 52.0%8th of 31 |
| 25th of 3189.7% | Save percentage | 88.7%31st of 31 |
| 18th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 31 |
| 31st of 315–28 | Road vs home | 17–1719th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHI 1–0 OTT in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.