Chicago Blackhawks at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Jason DickinsonGoals1
- Philipp KurashevAssists1
- Jason DickinsonPoints1
Islanders- Simon HolmstromGoals1
- Anders LeeAssists1
- Bo HorvatPoints1
Scoring summary
- P39:25Simon Holmstrom Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau (21), Anders Lee (15)1–2
- P31:33Bo Horvat Goal (31) Snap Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (53), Casey Cizikas (13)1–1
- P17:49Jason Dickinson Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (37), Philipp Kurashev (34)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:49Jason Dickinson Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (37), Philipp Kurashev (34)CHI 1 – 0 NYI · CHI 48% → 63% +15CHI 48% → 63%+15 pts
- P31:33Bo Horvat Goal (31) Snap Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (53), Casey Cizikas (13)CHI 1 – 1 NYI · NYI 26% → 51% +25NYI 26% → 51%+25 pts
- P39:25Simon Holmstrom Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau (21), Anders Lee (15)CHI 1 – 2 NYI · NYI 51% → 81% +30NYI 51% → 81%+30 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Islanders 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 57%
- Fair odds
- NYI -109
- CHI +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 3.0 – 3.1 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1408 | 1467 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | NYI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +8 | −5 | CHI: Petr Mrazek: team allows 0.21 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) · NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYI +51 Elo | NYI 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 52.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 312.1 | Goals scored | 3.021st of 31 |
| 28th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 3.425th of 31 |
| 30th of 31−1.3 | Margin | −0.526th of 31 |
| 29th of 3145.3% | Shot share | 47.4%23rd of 31 |
| 23rd of 3189.8% | Save percentage | 90.6%11th of 31 |
| 15th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 31 |
| 31st of 316–29 | Road vs home | 15–1925th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHI 1–0 NYI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.