New York Islanders at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Kyle PalmieriGoals1
- Alexander RomanovAssists2
- Kyle PalmieriPoints2
Blue Jackets- Kirill MarchenkoGoals1
- Kirill MarchenkoAssists1
- Kirill MarchenkoPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:22Kyle Palmieri Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: none4–2
- P33:21Noah Dobson Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (55), Alexander Romanov (13)3–2
- P117:22Kirill Marchenko Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (42), Cole Sillinger (17)2–2
- P113:48Bo Horvat Goal (32) Slap Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (54), Alexander Romanov (12)2–1
- P19:45Dmitri Voronkov Goal (18) Tip-In, assists: Kirill Marchenko (18), Alexandre Texier (17)1–1
- P17:53Pierre Engvall Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Ryan Pulock (12), Kyle Palmieri (21)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:53Pierre Engvall Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Ryan Pulock (12), Kyle Palmieri (21)NYI 1 – 0 CBJ · NYI 46% → 61% +15NYI 46% → 61%+15 pts
- P19:45Dmitri Voronkov Goal (18) Tip-In, assists: Kirill Marchenko (18), Alexandre Texier (17)NYI 1 – 1 CBJ · CBJ 39% → 54% +16CBJ 39% → 54%+16 pts
- P113:48Bo Horvat Goal (32) Slap Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (54), Alexander Romanov (12)NYI 2 – 1 CBJ · NYI 46% → 62% +16NYI 46% → 62%+16 pts
- P117:22Kirill Marchenko Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (42), Cole Sillinger (17)NYI 2 – 2 CBJ · CBJ 37% → 54% +17CBJ 37% → 54%+17 pts
- P33:21Noah Dobson Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (55), Alexander Romanov (13)NYI 3 – 2 CBJ · NYI 48% → 74% +26NYI 48% → 74%+26 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jackets 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CBJ 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CBJ 53%
- Fair odds
- CBJ -121
- NYI +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 2.9 – 3.2 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1469 | 1450 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | +5 | NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) · CBJ: Daniil Tarasov: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈18 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CBJ +23 Elo | CBJ 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 54.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 313.0 | Goals scored | 2.923rd of 31 |
| 24th of 313.4 | Goals allowed | 3.629th of 31 |
| 26th of 31−0.4 | Margin | −0.728th of 31 |
| 23rd of 3147.6% | Shot share | 46.9%24th of 31 |
| 11th of 3190.7% | Save percentage | 90.1%21st of 31 |
| 22nd of 314–6 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 31 |
| 24th of 3115–22 | Road vs home | 15–2226th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYI 2–0 CBJ in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.