New Jersey Devils at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Brendan SmithGoals1
- Brendan SmithAssists2
- Brendan SmithPoints3
Senators- Claude GirouxGoals1
- Drake BathersonAssists2
- Claude GirouxPoints2
Scoring summary
- P314:17Brady Tkachuk Goal (34) Snap Shot, assists: none4–3
- P33:37Claude Giroux Goal (21) Slap Shot, assists: Jake Sanderson (25), Drake Batherson (35)4–2
- P211:04Nico Hischier Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (53), Brendan Smith (9)4–1
- P20:33Jake Sanderson Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (34), Claude Giroux (41)3–1
- P116:34Brendan Smith Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (52)3–0
- P112:36Ondrej Palat Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Luke Hughes (35), Alexander Holtz (12)2–0
- P13:50Erik Haula Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (47), Brendan Smith (8)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:50Erik Haula Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (47), Brendan Smith (8)NJ 1 – 0 OTT · NJ 45% → 60% +15NJ 45% → 60%+15 pts
- P112:36Ondrej Palat Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Luke Hughes (35), Alexander Holtz (12)NJ 2 – 0 OTT · NJ 62% → 76% +14NJ 62% → 76%+14 pts
- P116:34Brendan Smith Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (52)NJ 3 – 0 OTT · NJ 77% → 88% +11NJ 77% → 88%+11 pts
- P20:33Jake Sanderson Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (34), Claude Giroux (41)NJ 3 – 1 OTT · OTT 11% → 21% +11OTT 11% → 21%+11 pts
- P314:17Brady Tkachuk Goal (34) Snap Shot, assists: noneNJ 4 – 3 OTT · OTT 1% → 13% +12OTT 1% → 13%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Senators 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 55%
- Fair odds
- OTT -122
- NJ +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 3.0 – 3.2 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | +5 | NJ: Jake Allen: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) · OTT: Anton Forsberg: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +34 Elo | OTT 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 55.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 3.215th of 31 |
| 26th of 313.4 | Goals allowed | 3.527th of 31 |
| 18th of 31−0.1 | Margin | −0.322nd of 31 |
| 12th of 3151.0% | Shot share | 52.1%9th of 31 |
| 27th of 3189.6% | Save percentage | 88.7%31st of 31 |
| 12th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 31 |
| 11th of 3119–18 | Road vs home | 18–1819th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NJ 1–1 OTT in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.