Florida Panthers at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Matthew TkachukGoals1
- Matthew TkachukAssists2
- Matthew TkachukPoints3
SenatorsScoring summary
- P33:54Matthew Tkachuk Goal (24) Tip-In, assists: Aleksander Barkov (53), Sam Reinhart (36)6–0
- P217:56Sam Reinhart Goal (53) Wrist Shot, assists: Aleksander Barkov (52), Vladimir Tarasenko (30)5–0
- P24:19Sam Bennett Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (59), Josh Mahura (9)4–0
- P22:35Anton Lundell Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Eetu Luostarinen (13), Nick Cousins (6)3–0
- P11:37Dmitry Kulikov Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Eetu Luostarinen (12), Evan Rodrigues (27)2–0
- P11:02Nick Cousins Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (58), Sam Bennett (19)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:02Nick Cousins Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (58), Sam Bennett (19)FLA 1 – 0 OTT · FLA 46% → 61% +15FLA 46% → 61%+15 pts
- P11:37Dmitry Kulikov Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Eetu Luostarinen (12), Evan Rodrigues (27)FLA 2 – 0 OTT · FLA 61% → 74% +13FLA 61% → 74%+13 pts
- P22:35Anton Lundell Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Eetu Luostarinen (13), Nick Cousins (6)FLA 3 – 0 OTT · FLA 80% → 91% +10FLA 80% → 91%+10 pts
- P24:19Sam Bennett Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (59), Josh Mahura (9)FLA 4 – 0 OTT · FLA 91% → 97% +5FLA 91% → 97%+5 pts
- P217:56Sam Reinhart Goal (53) Wrist Shot, assists: Aleksander Barkov (52), Vladimir Tarasenko (30)FLA 5 – 0 OTT · FLA >99% → >99% +1FLA >99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Senators 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 48%
- Fair odds
- OTT -116
- FLA +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 3.0 – 3.2 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1545 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −8 | +2 | FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.21 more goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) · OTT: Joonas Korpisalo: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +12 Elo | FLA 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 53.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 313.2 | Goals scored | 3.213th of 31 |
| 2nd of 312.6 | Goals allowed | 3.425th of 31 |
| 6th of 31+0.6 | Margin | −0.221st of 31 |
| 3rd of 3154.5% | Shot share | 52.2%8th of 31 |
| 4th of 3191.4% | Save percentage | 88.8%31st of 31 |
| 28th of 312–8 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 31 |
| 1st of 3124–14 | Road vs home | 18–1719th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
FLA 2–0 OTT in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.