Ottawa Senators at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Brady TkachukGoals1
- Brady TkachukAssists1
- Brady TkachukPoints2
Jets- Nikolaj EhlersGoals1
- Sean MonahanAssists1
- Mark ScheifelePoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:15Brady Tkachuk Goal (33) Slap Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (51), Jake Sanderson (24)3–2
- P39:48Mark Scheifele Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (20), Josh Morrissey (51)2–2
- P213:25Ridly Greig Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Brady Tkachuk (32), Drake Batherson (32)2–1
- P23:39Boris Katchouk Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Erik Brannstrom (15), Mark Kastelic (5)1–1
- P21:58Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Monahan (30), Dylan DeMelo (25)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P21:58Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Monahan (30), Dylan DeMelo (25)OTT 0 – 1 WPG · WPG 55% → 72% +17WPG 55% → 72%+17 pts
- P23:39Boris Katchouk Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Erik Brannstrom (15), Mark Kastelic (5)OTT 1 – 1 WPG · OTT 28% → 45% +17OTT 28% → 45%+17 pts
- P213:25Ridly Greig Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Brady Tkachuk (32), Drake Batherson (32)OTT 2 – 1 WPG · OTT 46% → 67% +21OTT 46% → 67%+21 pts
- P39:48Mark Scheifele Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (20), Josh Morrissey (51)OTT 2 – 2 WPG · WPG 21% → 52% +32WPG 21% → 52%+32 pts
- P318:15Brady Tkachuk Goal (33) Slap Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (51), Jake Sanderson (24)OTT 3 – 2 WPG · OTT 49% → 98% +49OTT 49% → 98%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Jets 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 60%
- Fair odds
- WPG -127
- OTT +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 2.9 – 3.2 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | −6 | OTT: Joonas Korpisalo: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) · WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.16 more goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +67 Elo | WPG 59.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 55.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 313.2 | Goals scored | 2.922nd of 31 |
| 27th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 2.51st of 31 |
| 22nd of 31−0.2 | Margin | +0.410th of 31 |
| 8th of 3152.1% | Shot share | 50.5%15th of 31 |
| 31st of 3188.8% | Save percentage | 92.3%1st of 31 |
| 6th of 317–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 31 |
| 26th of 3112–21 | Road vs home | 21–137th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OTT 0–1 WPG in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.