Vegas Golden Knights at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Ivan BarbashevGoals2
- William KarlssonAssists2
- Ivan BarbashevPoints2
Jets- Sean MonahanGoals1
- Dylan DeMeloAssists1
- Sean MonahanPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:26Jack Eichel Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: William Karlsson (26)4–1
- P318:15Ivan Barbashev Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–1
- P314:31Ivan Barbashev Goal (17) Backhand, assists: Anthony Mantha (19), Zach Whitecloud (9)2–1
- P23:31Sean Monahan Goal (23) Tip-In, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (32), Dylan DeMelo (24)1–1
- P115:56Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: William Karlsson (25)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:56Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: William Karlsson (25)VGK 1 – 0 WPG · VGK 45% → 62% +17VGK 45% → 62%+17 pts
- P23:31Sean Monahan Goal (23) Tip-In, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (32), Dylan DeMelo (24)VGK 1 – 1 WPG · WPG 36% → 54% +18WPG 36% → 54%+18 pts
- P314:31Ivan Barbashev Goal (17) Backhand, assists: Anthony Mantha (19), Zach Whitecloud (9)VGK 2 – 1 WPG · VGK 48% → 88% +39VGK 48% → 88%+39 pts
- P318:15Ivan Barbashev Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: noneVGK 3 – 1 WPG · VGK 98% → >99% +2VGK 98% → >99%+2 pts
- P319:26Jack Eichel Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: William Karlsson (26)VGK 4 – 1 WPG · VGK >99% → 100% +0VGK >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Jets 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 57%
- Fair odds
- WPG -124
- VGK +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 2.9 – 3.2 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | −5 | VGK: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) · WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.13 more goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +48 Elo | WPG 56.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 55.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 3.021st of 31 |
| 14th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 2.51st of 31 |
| 13th of 31+0.3 | Margin | +0.59th of 31 |
| 15th of 3150.4% | Shot share | 50.3%16th of 31 |
| 10th of 3190.8% | Save percentage | 92.3%1st of 31 |
| 10th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 31 |
| 19th of 3115–19 | Road vs home | 21–127th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
VGK 2–0 WPG in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.