Florida Panthers at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Vladimir TarasenkoGoals1
- Vladimir TarasenkoAssists2
- Vladimir TarasenkoPoints3
Maple Leafs- Auston MatthewsGoals2
- Auston MatthewsAssists1
- Auston MatthewsPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:14Auston Matthews Goal (62) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–6
- P318:10Sam Bennett Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Vladimir Tarasenko (28), Matthew Tkachuk (57)4–5
- P311:58Sam Reinhart Goal (52) Snap Shot, assists: Vladimir Tarasenko (27), Aleksander Barkov (51)3–5
- P32:12Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (22) Tip-In, assists: Niko Mikkola (13), Eetu Luostarinen (11)2–5
- P214:05Matthew Knies Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: Pontus Holmberg (10), Nicholas Robertson (12)1–5
- P28:32David Kampf Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–4
- P21:26Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (19) Tip-In, assists: Auston Matthews (36), Max Domi (34)1–3
- P20:47Brandon Montour Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (38)1–2
- P114:32Auston Matthews Goal (61) Wrist Shot, assists: TJ Brodie (22)0–2
- P113:59Nicholas Robertson Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Knies (20)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:59Nicholas Robertson Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Knies (20)FLA 0 – 1 TOR · TOR 54% → 70% +16TOR 54% → 70%+16 pts
- P114:32Auston Matthews Goal (61) Wrist Shot, assists: TJ Brodie (22)FLA 0 – 2 TOR · TOR 70% → 83% +13TOR 70% → 83%+13 pts
- P20:47Brandon Montour Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (38)FLA 1 – 2 TOR · FLA 16% → 29% +13FLA 16% → 29%+13 pts
- P21:26Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (19) Tip-In, assists: Auston Matthews (36), Max Domi (34)FLA 1 – 3 TOR · TOR 71% → 84% +13TOR 71% → 84%+13 pts
- P28:32David Kampf Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: noneFLA 1 – 4 TOR · TOR 86% → 95% +8TOR 86% → 95%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Maple Leafs 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 54%
- Fair odds
- TOR -121
- FLA +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 3.0 – 3.2 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1552 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −5 | +4 | FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) · TOR: Ilya Samsonov: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +26 Elo | TOR 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 54.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 313.2 | Goals scored | 3.63rd of 31 |
| 2nd of 312.5 | Goals allowed | 3.118th of 31 |
| 4th of 31+0.7 | Margin | +0.59th of 31 |
| 3rd of 3154.6% | Shot share | 52.4%7th of 31 |
| 2nd of 3191.6% | Save percentage | 90.2%20th of 31 |
| 20th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 6–411th of 31 |
| 1st of 3124–12 | Road vs home | 19–1616th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
FLA 1–1 TOR in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.