Toronto Maple Leafs at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- John TavaresGoals1
- Conor TimminsAssists2
- Conor TimminsPoints2
SabresScoring summary
- P314:23Auston Matthews Goal (60) Wrist Shot, assists: Conor Timmins (8)3–0
- P22:34Nicholas Robertson Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Knies (19)2–0
- P14:58John Tavares Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (55), Conor Timmins (7)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:58John Tavares Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (55), Conor Timmins (7)TOR 1 – 0 BUF · TOR 50% → 65% +15TOR 50% → 65%+15 pts
- P22:34Nicholas Robertson Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Knies (19)TOR 2 – 0 BUF · TOR 68% → 82% +14TOR 68% → 82%+14 pts
- P314:23Auston Matthews Goal (60) Wrist Shot, assists: Conor Timmins (8)TOR 3 – 0 BUF · TOR >99% → >99% +1TOR >99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Maple Leafs 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 54%
- Fair odds
- TOR -101
- BUF +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.1 – 3.1 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | BUF on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +3 | TOR: Ilya Samsonov: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) · BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +25 Elo | TOR 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 50.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 313.7 | Goals scored | 3.018th of 31 |
| 19th of 313.2 | Goals allowed | 3.116th of 31 |
| 9th of 31+0.5 | Margin | 0.016th of 31 |
| 7th of 3152.5% | Shot share | 51.3%11th of 31 |
| 21st of 3190.0% | Save percentage | 90.2%18th of 31 |
| 16th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 6–411th of 31 |
| 7th of 3118–15 | Road vs home | 17–1922nd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 1–2 BUF in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.