Florida Panthers at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Anton LundellGoals1
- Anton LundellAssists1
- Anton LundellPoints2
Canadiens- Nick SuzukiGoals2
- Alex NewhookAssists2
- Nick SuzukiPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:44Sam Bennett Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Dmitry Kulikov (19), Anton Lundell (21)3–5
- P34:34Jake Evans Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–5
- P30:33Cole Caufield Goal (21) Wrap-around, assists: Juraj Slafkovsky (27), Kaiden Guhle (16)2–4
- P212:24Nick Suzuki Goal (32) Tip-In, assists: Mike Matheson (42), Alex Newhook (15)2–3
- P25:58Nick Suzuki Goal (31) Snap Shot, assists: none2–2
- P113:13Aleksander Barkov Goal (22) Backhand, assists: Vladimir Tarasenko (29)2–1
- P110:12Joel Armia Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Michael Pezzetta (9), Alex Newhook (14)1–1
- P19:16Anton Lundell Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:16Anton Lundell Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: noneFLA 1 – 0 MTL · FLA 44% → 60% +16FLA 44% → 60%+16 pts
- P110:12Joel Armia Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Michael Pezzetta (9), Alex Newhook (14)FLA 1 – 1 MTL · MTL 40% → 56% +16MTL 40% → 56%+16 pts
- P113:13Aleksander Barkov Goal (22) Backhand, assists: Vladimir Tarasenko (29)FLA 2 – 1 MTL · FLA 44% → 61% +16FLA 44% → 61%+16 pts
- P25:58Nick Suzuki Goal (31) Snap Shot, assists: noneFLA 2 – 2 MTL · MTL 36% → 55% +19MTL 36% → 55%+19 pts
- P212:24Nick Suzuki Goal (32) Tip-In, assists: Mike Matheson (42), Alex Newhook (15)FLA 2 – 3 MTL · MTL 54% → 74% +20MTL 54% → 74%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Canadiens 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 45%
- Fair odds
- MTL -129
- FLA +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 2.9 – 3.2 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1549 | 1452 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | FLA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +7 | +3 | FLA: Anthony Stolarz: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) · MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +36 Elo | FLA 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MTL 56.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 313.2 | Goals scored | 2.727th of 31 |
| 2nd of 312.5 | Goals allowed | 3.426th of 31 |
| 6th of 31+0.7 | Margin | −0.728th of 31 |
| 3rd of 3154.6% | Shot share | 45.9%28th of 31 |
| 4th of 3191.5% | Save percentage | 90.2%18th of 31 |
| 24th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 31 |
| 1st of 3124–13 | Road vs home | 13–2229th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
FLA 3–0 MTL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.