Carolina Hurricanes at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Sebastian AhoGoals1
- Jake GuentzelAssists2
- Sebastian AhoPoints2
CanadiensScoring summary
- P317:12Seth Jarvis Goal (29) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (44), Sebastian Aho (52)3–0
- P33:42Sebastian Aho Goal (33) Snap Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (33), Jake Guentzel (43)2–0
- P29:33Jordan Staal Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (27)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P29:33Jordan Staal Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (27)CAR 1 – 0 MTL · CAR 48% → 68% +20CAR 48% → 68%+20 pts
- P33:42Sebastian Aho Goal (33) Snap Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (33), Jake Guentzel (43)CAR 2 – 0 MTL · CAR 75% → 91% +17CAR 75% → 91%+17 pts
- P317:12Seth Jarvis Goal (29) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (44), Sebastian Aho (52)CAR 3 – 0 MTL · CAR >99% → >99% +0CAR >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Canadiens 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 42%
- Fair odds
- MTL -110
- CAR +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 3.0 – 3.1 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1554 | 1455 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +3 | CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) · MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +60 Elo | CAR 58.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MTL 52.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 313.4 | Goals scored | 2.827th of 31 |
| 5th of 312.7 | Goals allowed | 3.426th of 31 |
| 6th of 31+0.7 | Margin | −0.727th of 31 |
| 1st of 3156.1% | Shot share | 45.9%28th of 31 |
| 17th of 3190.3% | Save percentage | 90.2%19th of 31 |
| 6th of 317–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 31 |
| 6th of 3120–15 | Road vs home | 13–2128th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CAR 2–0 MTL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.