Detroit Red Wings at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings
Hurricanes- Sebastian AhoGoals1
- Sebastian AhoAssists2
- Sebastian AhoPoints3
Scoring summary
- P216:23Brady Skjei Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (51), Seth Jarvis (32)0–4
- P210:46Martin Necas Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Evgeny Kuznetsov (15), Jordan Martinook (15)0–3
- P25:39Seth Jarvis Goal (28) Snap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (50), Jake Guentzel (42)0–2
- P24:42Sebastian Aho Goal (32) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (41), Seth Jarvis (31)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P24:42Sebastian Aho Goal (32) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (41), Seth Jarvis (31)DET 0 – 1 CAR · CAR 55% → 73% +18CAR 55% → 73%+18 pts
- P25:39Seth Jarvis Goal (28) Snap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (50), Jake Guentzel (42)DET 0 – 2 CAR · CAR 73% → 86% +13CAR 73% → 86%+13 pts
- P210:46Martin Necas Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Evgeny Kuznetsov (15), Jordan Martinook (15)DET 0 – 3 CAR · CAR 88% → 95% +8CAR 88% → 95%+8 pts
- P216:23Brady Skjei Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (51), Seth Jarvis (32)DET 0 – 4 CAR · CAR 97% → >99% +2CAR 97% → >99%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Hurricanes 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 64%
- Fair odds
- CAR -131
- DET +131 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 2.9 – 3.3 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1551 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −6 | +11 | DET: James Reimer: team allows 0.16 more goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) · CAR: Frederik Andersen: team allows 0.29 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈11 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +97 Elo | CAR 63.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 56.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 313.5 | Goals scored | 3.49th of 31 |
| 23rd of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 2.86th of 31 |
| 15th of 31+0.2 | Margin | +0.67th of 31 |
| 25th of 3146.8% | Shot share | 56.0%1st of 31 |
| 15th of 3190.3% | Save percentage | 90.1%19th of 31 |
| 23rd of 313–7 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 31 |
| 19th of 3115–18 | Road vs home | 23–136th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 0–2 CAR in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.