Ottawa Senators at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Jakob ChychrunGoals1
- Jakob ChychrunAssists1
- Jakob ChychrunPoints2
Wild- Vinni LettieriGoals1
- Zach BogosianAssists1
- Vinni LettieriPoints1
Scoring summary
- P313:04Vinni Lettieri Goal (4) Backhand, assists: none2–3
- P32:42Jakob Chychrun Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (33), Tim Stützle (52)2–2
- P27:43Drake Batherson Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (33), Jakob Chychrun (25)1–2
- P20:49Matt Boldy Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (46), Jonas Brodin (17)0–2
- P112:32Mason Shaw Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Bogosian (10), Jacob Lucchini (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:32Mason Shaw Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Bogosian (10), Jacob Lucchini (2)OTT 0 – 1 MIN · MIN 54% → 70% +15MIN 54% → 70%+15 pts
- P20:49Matt Boldy Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (46), Jonas Brodin (17)OTT 0 – 2 MIN · MIN 71% → 84% +13MIN 71% → 84%+13 pts
- P27:43Drake Batherson Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (33), Jakob Chychrun (25)OTT 1 – 2 MIN · OTT 14% → 28% +14OTT 14% → 28%+14 pts
- P32:42Jakob Chychrun Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (33), Tim Stützle (52)OTT 2 – 2 MIN · OTT 23% → 47% +25OTT 23% → 47%+25 pts
- P313:04Vinni Lettieri Goal (4) Backhand, assists: noneOTT 2 – 3 MIN · MIN 52% → 87% +35MIN 52% → 87%+35 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Wild 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 55%
- Fair odds
- MIN -122
- OTT +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 2.9 – 3.2 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | −6 | OTT: Joonas Korpisalo: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · MIN: Marc-Andre Fleury: team allows 0.16 more goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +32 Elo | MIN 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 54.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 313.2 | Goals scored | 3.116th of 31 |
| 27th of 313.4 | Goals allowed | 3.220th of 31 |
| 22nd of 31−0.2 | Margin | −0.220th of 31 |
| 8th of 3152.1% | Shot share | 50.0%18th of 31 |
| 31st of 3188.8% | Save percentage | 89.8%25th of 31 |
| 5th of 317–3 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 31 |
| 26th of 3113–21 | Road vs home | 18–1617th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OTT 1–0 MIN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.