Vegas Golden Knights at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Jonathan MarchessaultGoals1
- Alec MartinezAssists1
- Jonathan MarchessaultPoints1
Wild- Kirill KaprizovGoals1
- Matt BoldyAssists1
- Kirill KaprizovPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT3:30Jonathan Marchessault Goal (40) Wrist Shot, assists: William Karlsson (27)2–1
- P313:43Michael Amadio Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Chandler Stephenson (31), Alec Martinez (13)1–1
- P216:44Kirill Kaprizov Goal (37) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (34), Brock Faber (34)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P216:44Kirill Kaprizov Goal (37) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (34), Brock Faber (34)VGK 0 – 1 MIN · MIN 53% → 74% +22MIN 53% → 74%+22 pts
- P313:43Michael Amadio Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Chandler Stephenson (31), Alec Martinez (13)VGK 1 – 1 MIN · VGK 12% → 49% +36VGK 12% → 49%+36 pts
- OT3:30Jonathan Marchessault Goal (40) Wrist Shot, assists: William Karlsson (27)VGK 2 – 1 MIN · VGK 49% → 99% +50VGK 49% → 99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Wild 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 53%
- Fair odds
- MIN -120
- VGK +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 3.0 – 3.2 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | +8 | VGK: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) · MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +21 Elo | MIN 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 54.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 3.116th of 31 |
| 13th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 3.320th of 31 |
| 13th of 31+0.3 | Margin | −0.120th of 31 |
| 16th of 3150.3% | Shot share | 49.9%18th of 31 |
| 10th of 3191.0% | Save percentage | 89.7%26th of 31 |
| 6th of 317–3 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 31 |
| 16th of 3116–19 | Road vs home | 18–1516th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
VGK 0–1 MIN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.