Nashville Predators at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Filip ForsbergGoals3
- Luke EvangelistaAssists2
- Filip ForsbergPoints3
Blackhawks- Philipp KurashevGoals1
- Tyler JohnsonAssists1
- Philipp KurashevPoints1
Scoring summary
- P31:37Filip Forsberg Goal (46) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (41), Luke Evangelista (21)5–1
- P216:58Philipp Kurashev Goal (18) Slap Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (38), Tyler Johnson (14)4–1
- P29:39Jason Zucker Goal (14) Backhand, assists: Roman Josi (60), Kevin Lankinen (1)4–0
- P25:22Filip Forsberg Goal (45) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–0
- P119:03Kiefer Sherwood Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Schenn (6), Spencer Stastney (2)2–0
- P15:53Filip Forsberg Goal (44) Snap Shot, assists: Luke Evangelista (20), Tommy Novak (26)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:53Filip Forsberg Goal (44) Snap Shot, assists: Luke Evangelista (20), Tommy Novak (26)NSH 1 – 0 CHI · NSH 49% → 64% +15NSH 49% → 64%+15 pts
- P119:03Kiefer Sherwood Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Schenn (6), Spencer Stastney (2)NSH 2 – 0 CHI · NSH 66% → 81% +14NSH 66% → 81%+14 pts
- P25:22Filip Forsberg Goal (45) Wrist Shot, assists: noneNSH 3 – 0 CHI · NSH 83% → 92% +10NSH 83% → 92%+10 pts
- P29:39Jason Zucker Goal (14) Backhand, assists: Roman Josi (60), Kevin Lankinen (1)NSH 4 – 0 CHI · NSH 94% → 98% +4NSH 94% → 98%+4 pts
- P216:58Philipp Kurashev Goal (18) Slap Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (38), Tyler Johnson (14)NSH 4 – 1 CHI · CHI <1% → 4% +3CHI <1% → 4%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blackhawks 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI 36%
- Fair odds
- CHI -104
- NSH +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 3.0 – 3.1 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1402 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −6 | −16 | NSH: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.15 more goals than with its usual starter (≈14 weighted starts) · CHI: Arvid Soderblom: team allows 0.39 more goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NSH +103 Elo | NSH 64.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 51.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 313.2 | Goals scored | 2.131st of 31 |
| 10th of 312.9 | Goals allowed | 3.526th of 31 |
| 13th of 31+0.3 | Margin | −1.330th of 31 |
| 13th of 3151.1% | Shot share | 44.8%30th of 31 |
| 7th of 3191.1% | Save percentage | 89.9%23rd of 31 |
| 6th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 31 |
| 3rd of 3123–14 | Road vs home | 15–2327th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NSH 3–0 CHI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.