Minnesota Wild at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Kirill KaprizovGoals2
- Kirill KaprizovAssists1
- Kirill KaprizovPoints3
BlackhawksScoring summary
- P38:10Kirill Kaprizov Goal (41) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Faber (36)4–0
- P218:27Frederick Gaudreau Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Zach Bogosian (11), Marat Khusnutdinov (2)3–0
- P212:30Marco Rossi Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (49), Kirill Kaprizov (48)2–0
- P21:06Kirill Kaprizov Goal (40) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (35), Joel Eriksson Ek (32)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P21:06Kirill Kaprizov Goal (40) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (35), Joel Eriksson Ek (32)MIN 1 – 0 CHI · MIN 48% → 65% +18MIN 48% → 65%+18 pts
- P212:30Marco Rossi Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (49), Kirill Kaprizov (48)MIN 2 – 0 CHI · MIN 69% → 85% +16MIN 69% → 85%+16 pts
- P218:27Frederick Gaudreau Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Zach Bogosian (11), Marat Khusnutdinov (2)MIN 3 – 0 CHI · MIN 88% → 96% +8MIN 88% → 96%+8 pts
- P38:10Kirill Kaprizov Goal (41) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Faber (36)MIN 4 – 0 CHI · MIN >99% → >99% +1MIN >99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blackhawks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI 44%
- Fair odds
- CHI -112
- MIN +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.0 – 3.1 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1409 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | CHI and MIN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −19 | −16 | MIN: Jesper Wallstedt: team allows 0.47 more goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · CHI: Arvid Soderblom: team allows 0.39 more goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +41 Elo | MIN 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 52.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 313.0 | Goals scored | 2.131st of 31 |
| 20th of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 3.425th of 31 |
| 21st of 31−0.2 | Margin | −1.330th of 31 |
| 18th of 3150.0% | Shot share | 44.9%29th of 31 |
| 24th of 3189.7% | Save percentage | 90.0%23rd of 31 |
| 19th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 31 |
| 22nd of 3114–19 | Road vs home | 15–2227th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 2–0 CHI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.