Colorado Avalanche at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Jonathan DrouinGoals2
- Nathan MacKinnonAssists2
- Jonathan DrouinPoints3
Wild- Vinni LettieriGoals1
- Jake LucchiniAssists1
- Vinni LettieriPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:32Mikko Rantanen Goal (40) Wrist Shot, assists: none5–2
- P36:32Nathan MacKinnon Goal (48) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Drouin (34)4–2
- P210:10Declan Chisholm Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (47), Mats Zuccarello (46)3–2
- P20:43Jonathan Drouin Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (82), Devon Toews (34)3–1
- P112:28Jonathan Drouin Goal (16) Batted, assists: Cale Makar (63), Nathan MacKinnon (81)2–1
- P18:05Vinni Lettieri Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Mason Shaw (2), Jacob Lucchini (3)1–1
- P14:34Artturi Lehkonen Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Johnson (13), Casey Mittelstadt (37)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:34Artturi Lehkonen Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Johnson (13), Casey Mittelstadt (37)COL 1 – 0 MIN · COL 47% → 62% +15COL 47% → 62%+15 pts
- P18:05Vinni Lettieri Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Mason Shaw (2), Jacob Lucchini (3)COL 1 – 1 MIN · MIN 38% → 53% +15MIN 38% → 53%+15 pts
- P112:28Jonathan Drouin Goal (16) Batted, assists: Cale Makar (63), Nathan MacKinnon (81)COL 2 – 1 MIN · COL 47% → 63% +16COL 47% → 63%+16 pts
- P210:10Declan Chisholm Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (47), Mats Zuccarello (46)COL 3 – 2 MIN · MIN 17% → 32% +16MIN 17% → 32%+16 pts
- P36:32Nathan MacKinnon Goal (48) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Drouin (34)COL 4 – 2 MIN · COL 77% → 93% +17COL 77% → 93%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Wild 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 48%
- Fair odds
- MIN -115
- COL +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.0 – 3.2 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1553 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +9 | COL: Justus Annunen: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.22 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +15 Elo | COL 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 53.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 313.7 | Goals scored | 3.116th of 31 |
| 15th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 3.220th of 31 |
| 2nd of 31+0.7 | Margin | −0.120th of 31 |
| 6th of 3153.1% | Shot share | 49.8%18th of 31 |
| 14th of 3190.5% | Save percentage | 89.8%24th of 31 |
| 3rd of 317–3 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 31 |
| 14th of 3118–18 | Road vs home | 19–1615th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
COL 2–0 MIN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.