Winnipeg Jets at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Vladislav NamestnikovGoals1
- Vladislav NamestnikovAssists2
- Vladislav NamestnikovPoints3
Wild- Kirill KaprizovGoals2
- Mats ZuccarelloAssists2
- Kirill KaprizovPoints2
Scoring summary
- P39:46Morgan Barron Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Dylan Samberg (16), Vladislav Namestnikov (26)4–2
- P213:39Alex Iafallo Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Brenden Dillon (12), Vladislav Namestnikov (25)3–2
- P115:42Kirill Kaprizov Goal (39) Slap Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (48), Brock Faber (35)2–2
- P111:44Kyle Connor Goal (31) Tip-In, assists: Sean Monahan (32), Dylan DeMelo (27)2–1
- P18:46Kirill Kaprizov Goal (38) Backhand, assists: Mats Zuccarello (47)1–1
- P12:33Vladislav Namestnikov Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Iafallo (15)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:46Kirill Kaprizov Goal (38) Backhand, assists: Mats Zuccarello (47)WPG 1 – 1 MIN · MIN 38% → 54% +16MIN 38% → 54%+16 pts
- P111:44Kyle Connor Goal (31) Tip-In, assists: Sean Monahan (32), Dylan DeMelo (27)WPG 2 – 1 MIN · WPG 46% → 62% +16WPG 46% → 62%+16 pts
- P115:42Kirill Kaprizov Goal (39) Slap Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (48), Brock Faber (35)WPG 2 – 2 MIN · MIN 37% → 53% +17MIN 37% → 53%+17 pts
- P213:39Alex Iafallo Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Brenden Dillon (12), Vladislav Namestnikov (25)WPG 3 – 2 MIN · WPG 47% → 69% +21WPG 47% → 69%+21 pts
- P39:46Morgan Barron Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Dylan Samberg (16), Vladislav Namestnikov (26)WPG 4 – 2 MIN · WPG 80% → 96% +16WPG 80% → 96%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Wild 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 50%
- Fair odds
- MIN -118
- WPG +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 3.0 – 3.2 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −5 | −5 | WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.13 more goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) · MIN: Marc-Andre Fleury: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN 0 Elo | MIN 50.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 54.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.116th of 31 |
| 1st of 312.5 | Goals allowed | 3.220th of 31 |
| 10th of 31+0.5 | Margin | −0.220th of 31 |
| 14th of 3150.7% | Shot share | 49.9%18th of 31 |
| 1st of 3192.2% | Save percentage | 89.8%24th of 31 |
| 21st of 314–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 31 |
| 9th of 3119–16 | Road vs home | 19–1718th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WPG 3–0 MIN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.