Los Angeles Kings at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Kevin FialaGoals1
- Vladislav GavrikovAssists2
- Vladislav GavrikovPoints2
Jets- Cole PerfettiGoals2
- Kyle ConnorAssists3
- Cole PerfettiPoints3
Scoring summary
- P313:05Cole Perfetti Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Neal Pionk (23), Nate Schmidt (11)3–4
- P216:47Josh Morrissey Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Perfetti (18), Kyle Connor (23)3–3
- P213:56Anze Kopitar Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (43), Vladislav Gavrikov (16)3–2
- P211:49Sean Monahan Goal (24) Deflected, assists: Josh Morrissey (52), Kyle Connor (22)2–2
- P25:48Kevin Fiala Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Vladislav Gavrikov (15)2–1
- P112:30Viktor Arvidsson Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Trevor Moore (24), Drew Doughty (32)1–1
- P111:14Cole Perfetti Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan DeMelo (26), Kyle Connor (21)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P25:48Kevin Fiala Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Vladislav Gavrikov (15)LA 2 – 1 WPG · LA 46% → 65% +19LA 46% → 65%+19 pts
- P211:49Sean Monahan Goal (24) Deflected, assists: Josh Morrissey (52), Kyle Connor (22)LA 2 – 2 WPG · WPG 33% → 54% +21WPG 33% → 54%+21 pts
- P213:56Anze Kopitar Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (43), Vladislav Gavrikov (16)LA 3 – 2 WPG · LA 46% → 68% +21LA 46% → 68%+21 pts
- P216:47Josh Morrissey Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Perfetti (18), Kyle Connor (23)LA 3 – 3 WPG · WPG 31% → 53% +23WPG 31% → 53%+23 pts
- P313:05Cole Perfetti Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Neal Pionk (23), Nate Schmidt (11)LA 3 – 4 WPG · WPG 52% → 87% +35WPG 52% → 87%+35 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Jets 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 57%
- Fair odds
- WPG -125
- LA +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 2.9 – 3.2 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +6 | LA: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) · WPG: Laurent Brossoit: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +51 Elo | WPG 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 55.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 313.0 | Goals scored | 2.923rd of 31 |
| 3rd of 312.6 | Goals allowed | 2.51st of 31 |
| 11th of 31+0.4 | Margin | +0.410th of 31 |
| 5th of 3153.3% | Shot share | 50.5%15th of 31 |
| 5th of 3191.3% | Save percentage | 92.3%1st of 31 |
| 11th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 31 |
| 11th of 3119–17 | Road vs home | 21–148th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LA 1–1 WPG in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.