Los Angeles Kings at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Adrian KempeGoals1
- Kevin FialaAssists2
- Adrian KempePoints2
Flames- Nazem KadriGoals1
- Andrei KuzmenkoAssists2
- Nazem KadriPoints2
Scoring summary
- P311:30MacKenzie Weegar Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Jonathan Huberdeau (35), Yegor Sharangovich (25)2–4
- P218:25Anze Kopitar Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (42), Kevin Fiala (41)2–3
- P211:58Blake Coleman Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Andersson (27), Daniil Miromanov (2)1–3
- P111:56Martin Pospisil Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Andrei Kuzmenko (18), Nazem Kadri (39)1–2
- P15:42Adrian Kempe Goal (23) Slap Shot, assists: Drew Doughty (31), Kevin Fiala (40)1–1
- P14:45Nazem Kadri Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Andrei Kuzmenko (17), Yegor Sharangovich (24)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:45Nazem Kadri Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Andrei Kuzmenko (17), Yegor Sharangovich (24)LA 0 – 1 CGY · CGY 54% → 68% +14CGY 54% → 68%+14 pts
- P15:42Adrian Kempe Goal (23) Slap Shot, assists: Drew Doughty (31), Kevin Fiala (40)LA 1 – 1 CGY · LA 31% → 46% +15LA 31% → 46%+15 pts
- P111:56Martin Pospisil Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Andrei Kuzmenko (18), Nazem Kadri (39)LA 1 – 2 CGY · CGY 54% → 69% +15CGY 54% → 69%+15 pts
- P211:58Blake Coleman Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Andersson (27), Daniil Miromanov (2)LA 1 – 3 CGY · CGY 73% → 87% +15CGY 73% → 87%+15 pts
- P218:25Anze Kopitar Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (42), Kevin Fiala (41)LA 2 – 3 CGY · LA 10% → 25% +15LA 10% → 25%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Flames 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CGY 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CGY 51%
- Fair odds
- CGY -118
- LA +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 2.9 – 3.2 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +8 | LA: David Rittich: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈16 weighted starts) · CGY: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.21 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CGY +5 Elo | CGY 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CGY 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CGY 54.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.018th of 31 |
| 3rd of 312.6 | Goals allowed | 3.322nd of 31 |
| 11th of 31+0.4 | Margin | −0.324th of 31 |
| 5th of 3153.5% | Shot share | 51.0%13th of 31 |
| 5th of 3191.3% | Save percentage | 89.8%24th of 31 |
| 11th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 31 |
| 9th of 3119–16 | Road vs home | 17–1821st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LA 1–1 CGY in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.